Xi Jinping has consolidated control over the People’s Liberation Army through recent purges of senior officers, including the expulsion of Central Military Commission figures for alleged factionalism and disloyalty. These actions, combined with strict information controls, have kept trader-implied probabilities for a widely reported coup attempt before 2027 at low single digits. The market resolves only on credible, independent reporting of a coordinated effort by military or security factions to seize power, a threshold unmet by prior unverified rumors or official disciplinary cases. No major new catalysts have emerged in the past month, though any visible military leadership shifts or external shocks before year-end could influence assessments.