Preliminary data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service's early May bulletin positions April 2026 as the joint third-warmest April on record globally, with a 1.43°C anomaly above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline—equivalent to roughly 1.15–1.19°C against the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) 1951–1980 reference period that resolves this market. This trader consensus at 96.5% implied probability reflects near-record extrapolar sea surface temperatures (second-highest on record), elevated land surface anomalies, and neutral ENSO conditions sustaining warmth amid ongoing climate trends. Final NASA GISS Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data, expected imminently, could prompt minor revisions from Arctic under-sampling or interpolation adjustments, though significant downward shifts below 1.10°C remain unlikely given multi-dataset alignment.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtApril 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 96.5%
1.20–1.24ºC 2.9%
1.10–1.14ºC <1%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
$350,959 KL.
$350,959 KL.
May 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
1%
1.15–1.19ºC
97%
1.20–1.24ºC
3%
1.25–1.29ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC 96.5%
1.20–1.24ºC 2.9%
1.10–1.14ºC <1%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
$350,959 KL.
$350,959 KL.
May 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$60,349 KL.
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$62,550 KL.
1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$47,914 KL.
97%
1.20–1.24ºC
$69,519 KL.
3%
1.25–1.29ºC
$62,660 KL.
<1%
>1.29ºC
$47,967 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service's early May bulletin positions April 2026 as the joint third-warmest April on record globally, with a 1.43°C anomaly above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline—equivalent to roughly 1.15–1.19°C against the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) 1951–1980 reference period that resolves this market. This trader consensus at 96.5% implied probability reflects near-record extrapolar sea surface temperatures (second-highest on record), elevated land surface anomalies, and neutral ENSO conditions sustaining warmth amid ongoing climate trends. Final NASA GISS Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data, expected imminently, could prompt minor revisions from Arctic under-sampling or interpolation adjustments, though significant downward shifts below 1.10°C remain unlikely given multi-dataset alignment.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Thị trường mở: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Khối lượng
$350,959Ngày kết thúc
May 10, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service's early May bulletin positions April 2026 as the joint third-warmest April on record globally, with a 1.43°C anomaly above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline—equivalent to roughly 1.15–1.19°C against the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) 1951–1980 reference period that resolves this market. This trader consensus at 96.5% implied probability reflects near-record extrapolar sea surface temperatures (second-highest on record), elevated land surface anomalies, and neutral ENSO conditions sustaining warmth amid ongoing climate trends. Final NASA GISS Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data, expected imminently, could prompt minor revisions from Arctic under-sampling or interpolation adjustments, though significant downward shifts below 1.10°C remain unlikely given multi-dataset alignment.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Khối lượng
$350,959Ngày kết thúc
May 10, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service's early May bulletin positions April 2026 as the joint third-warmest April on record globally, with a 1.43°C anomaly above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline—equivalent to roughly 1.15–1.19°C against the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) 1951–1980 reference period that resolves this market. This trader consensus at 96.5% implied probability reflects near-record extrapolar sea surface temperatures (second-highest on record), elevated land surface anomalies, and neutral ENSO conditions sustaining warmth amid ongoing climate trends. Final NASA GISS Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data, expected imminently, could prompt minor revisions from Arctic under-sampling or interpolation adjustments, though significant downward shifts below 1.10°C remain unlikely given multi-dataset alignment.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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