Apple's (AAPL) share price surged over 3% intraday on May 1, 2026, to around $280 following its fiscal Q2 earnings beat on April 30, with revenue of $111.18 billion topping estimates of $109.66 billion and EPS at $2.01 versus $1.95 expected, fueled by robust iPhone and China sales. This post-earnings momentum has clustered Polymarket-implied probabilities evenly at 50% across the $250–$255, $260–$265, $265–$270, and $280–$285 bins for the May 4 weekly close, reflecting trader consensus on balanced upside from services growth and AI tailwinds against risks like supply constraints and broader tech sector volatility. Key swing factors include options expiration flows and macroeconomic data ahead of the May 4 close, with no major catalysts scheduled.