Recent congressional action through the 2025 reconciliation legislation raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating substantial headroom that analysts project will delay the next potential shortfall until mid-to-late 2027. This buffer, combined with Congress's consistent record of raising or suspending the limit ahead of exhaustion, underpins traders' strong consensus reflected in the 94.3% implied probability against a default by 2027. While large ongoing deficits continue to push debt higher, no immediate legislative impasse or fiscal deadline looms in the near term. Factors that could still shift sentiment include unexpected revenue shortfalls, heightened partisan standoffs during future negotiations, or adverse economic shocks that accelerate borrowing needs.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоUS defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
$15,053 Обс.
$15,053 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$15,053 Обс.
$15,053 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Recent congressional action through the 2025 reconciliation legislation raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating substantial headroom that analysts project will delay the next potential shortfall until mid-to-late 2027. This buffer, combined with Congress's consistent record of raising or suspending the limit ahead of exhaustion, underpins traders' strong consensus reflected in the 94.3% implied probability against a default by 2027. While large ongoing deficits continue to push debt higher, no immediate legislative impasse or fiscal deadline looms in the near term. Factors that could still shift sentiment include unexpected revenue shortfalls, heightened partisan standoffs during future negotiations, or adverse economic shocks that accelerate borrowing needs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Обсяг
$15,053Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Recent congressional action through the 2025 reconciliation legislation raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating substantial headroom that analysts project will delay the next potential shortfall until mid-to-late 2027. This buffer, combined with Congress's consistent record of raising or suspending the limit ahead of exhaustion, underpins traders' strong consensus reflected in the 94.3% implied probability against a default by 2027. While large ongoing deficits continue to push debt higher, no immediate legislative impasse or fiscal deadline looms in the near term. Factors that could still shift sentiment include unexpected revenue shortfalls, heightened partisan standoffs during future negotiations, or adverse economic shocks that accelerate borrowing needs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Обсяг
$15,053Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent congressional action through the 2025 reconciliation legislation raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating substantial headroom that analysts project will delay the next potential shortfall until mid-to-late 2027. This buffer, combined with Congress's consistent record of raising or suspending the limit ahead of exhaustion, underpins traders' strong consensus reflected in the 94.3% implied probability against a default by 2027. While large ongoing deficits continue to push debt higher, no immediate legislative impasse or fiscal deadline looms in the near term. Factors that could still shift sentiment include unexpected revenue shortfalls, heightened partisan standoffs during future negotiations, or adverse economic shocks that accelerate borrowing needs.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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