Traders assign a 98% implied probability against a US debt default by 2027 because Congress has consistently raised or suspended the statutory debt limit ahead of any breach, and Treasury extraordinary measures provide additional runway even after the $41.1 trillion ceiling is reached. Current projections place initial contact with the limit around spring or summer 2027, with the effective X-date potentially extending into late 2027 or 2028, leaving time for legislative action during the lame-duck session or early in the next Congress. Recent fiscal data show deficits near $2 trillion and debt above $40 trillion amid elevated Treasury yields, yet these pressures have not altered the expectation that political incentives will drive a resolution to avoid payment delays or market disruption. While near-certain consensus reflects this track record, an unusually protracted standoff tied to spending cuts or unrelated legislation in 2027 could still test outcomes if extraordinary measures are exhausted faster than anticipated.