Traders assign a 98% implied probability to “No” on Obama’s arrest before 2027 because no federal charges or arrest warrant have been issued against the former president despite referrals and a DOJ grand-jury probe into Obama-era intelligence assessments. Investigations launched in 2025 have focused on former officials, encountered statutes-of-limitations constraints, and produced no indictments or executed arrests. Historical precedent shows no former president has faced such action on comparable timelines, and the roughly three-month window remaining leaves insufficient procedural runway for charging, indictment, and physical custody. Rare developments that could still shift odds include an unanticipated indictment followed by immediate arrest or new evidence triggering expedited proceedings, though both remain outside current reporting.