Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat, created by Democratic incumbent Tina Smith’s retirement, remains heavily favored for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. The state’s partisan voting index and consistent Democratic performance in recent federal races underpin trader consensus around an 88.5% probability for a Democratic winner. Democratic primary polling shows Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan maintaining a double-digit lead over Rep. Angie Craig ahead of the August 11 primary, while Republican polling indicates Michele Tafoya holds a strong position in her party’s contest. General-election matchups released in early 2026 have shown Democratic candidates ahead by six points or more, aligning with nonpartisan race ratings that classify the contest as likely Democratic. No major late-breaking developments have altered this positioning.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMinnesota Senate Election Winner
Minnesota Senate Election Winner
$24,774 Обс.
$24,774 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
89%
Republican
11%
$24,774 Обс.
$24,774 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
$16,904 Обс.
89%
Republican
$7,870 Обс.
11%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat, created by Democratic incumbent Tina Smith’s retirement, remains heavily favored for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. The state’s partisan voting index and consistent Democratic performance in recent federal races underpin trader consensus around an 88.5% probability for a Democratic winner. Democratic primary polling shows Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan maintaining a double-digit lead over Rep. Angie Craig ahead of the August 11 primary, while Republican polling indicates Michele Tafoya holds a strong position in her party’s contest. General-election matchups released in early 2026 have shown Democratic candidates ahead by six points or more, aligning with nonpartisan race ratings that classify the contest as likely Democratic. No major late-breaking developments have altered this positioning.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Ринок відкрито: Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ET
Обсяг
$24,774Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat, created by Democratic incumbent Tina Smith’s retirement, remains heavily favored for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. The state’s partisan voting index and consistent Democratic performance in recent federal races underpin trader consensus around an 88.5% probability for a Democratic winner. Democratic primary polling shows Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan maintaining a double-digit lead over Rep. Angie Craig ahead of the August 11 primary, while Republican polling indicates Michele Tafoya holds a strong position in her party’s contest. General-election matchups released in early 2026 have shown Democratic candidates ahead by six points or more, aligning with nonpartisan race ratings that classify the contest as likely Democratic. No major late-breaking developments have altered this positioning.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Обсяг
$24,774Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat, created by Democratic incumbent Tina Smith’s retirement, remains heavily favored for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. The state’s partisan voting index and consistent Democratic performance in recent federal races underpin trader consensus around an 88.5% probability for a Democratic winner. Democratic primary polling shows Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan maintaining a double-digit lead over Rep. Angie Craig ahead of the August 11 primary, while Republican polling indicates Michele Tafoya holds a strong position in her party’s contest. General-election matchups released in early 2026 have shown Democratic candidates ahead by six points or more, aligning with nonpartisan race ratings that classify the contest as likely Democratic. No major late-breaking developments have altered this positioning.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання