Recent observational data from NOAA place April 2026 global surface temperatures at 1.12 °C above the 20th-century average, consistent with the market’s dominant 1.10–1.14 °C bin. An emerging El Niño, now carrying an 82 % probability of onset during May–July according to the Climate Prediction Center, is expected to provide additional warmth through the Northern Hemisphere summer, although its peak influence on global means typically lags by several months. Multi-model ensembles from the World Meteorological Organization project widespread above-normal land temperatures for the May–July period, reinforcing trader expectations that May will remain near recent elevated levels without crossing into markedly higher anomalies. Ongoing monitoring by agencies including NOAA and NASA will refine the final May value ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 65%
<1.10ºC 18%
1.15–1.19ºC 11%
1.20–1.24ºC 3.6%
$73,128 Обс.
$73,128 Обс.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
18%
1.10–1.14ºC
65%
1.15–1.19ºC
11%
1.20–1.24ºC
4%
1.25–1.29ºC
2%
>1.29ºC
1%
1.10–1.14ºC 65%
<1.10ºC 18%
1.15–1.19ºC 11%
1.20–1.24ºC 3.6%
$73,128 Обс.
$73,128 Обс.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$27,296 Обс.
18%
1.10–1.14ºC
$7,111 Обс.
65%
1.15–1.19ºC
$12,331 Обс.
11%
1.20–1.24ºC
$9,670 Обс.
4%
1.25–1.29ºC
$7,574 Обс.
2%
>1.29ºC
$9,145 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from NOAA place April 2026 global surface temperatures at 1.12 °C above the 20th-century average, consistent with the market’s dominant 1.10–1.14 °C bin. An emerging El Niño, now carrying an 82 % probability of onset during May–July according to the Climate Prediction Center, is expected to provide additional warmth through the Northern Hemisphere summer, although its peak influence on global means typically lags by several months. Multi-model ensembles from the World Meteorological Organization project widespread above-normal land temperatures for the May–July period, reinforcing trader expectations that May will remain near recent elevated levels without crossing into markedly higher anomalies. Ongoing monitoring by agencies including NOAA and NASA will refine the final May value ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Обсяг
$73,128Дата завершення
Jun 10, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from NOAA place April 2026 global surface temperatures at 1.12 °C above the 20th-century average, consistent with the market’s dominant 1.10–1.14 °C bin. An emerging El Niño, now carrying an 82 % probability of onset during May–July according to the Climate Prediction Center, is expected to provide additional warmth through the Northern Hemisphere summer, although its peak influence on global means typically lags by several months. Multi-model ensembles from the World Meteorological Organization project widespread above-normal land temperatures for the May–July period, reinforcing trader expectations that May will remain near recent elevated levels without crossing into markedly higher anomalies. Ongoing monitoring by agencies including NOAA and NASA will refine the final May value ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Обсяг
$73,128Дата завершення
Jun 10, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent observational data from NOAA place April 2026 global surface temperatures at 1.12 °C above the 20th-century average, consistent with the market’s dominant 1.10–1.14 °C bin. An emerging El Niño, now carrying an 82 % probability of onset during May–July according to the Climate Prediction Center, is expected to provide additional warmth through the Northern Hemisphere summer, although its peak influence on global means typically lags by several months. Multi-model ensembles from the World Meteorological Organization project widespread above-normal land temperatures for the May–July period, reinforcing trader expectations that May will remain near recent elevated levels without crossing into markedly higher anomalies. Ongoing monitoring by agencies including NOAA and NASA will refine the final May value ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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