Moonshot AI has yet to announce a firm timeline for Kimi K3, its next flagship large language model succeeding the 1-trillion-parameter K2.5 mixture-of-experts release in January 2026, leaving Polymarket traders skeptical of a near-term debut. A fresh April 18 technical update on cross-datacenter prefill/decode disaggregation—validated via a massively scaled Kimi Linear hybrid architecture—hints at infrastructure advances but sparked speculation rather than confirmation, pricing an April 30 public release at just 7% implied probability amid low volume. June 30 odds hover near 53% yes, balancing rumors of a 2T-parameter upgrade against recent K2.6 soft-launch for developers, which has eased urgency. Competitive pressure from DeepSeek and global AI labs like OpenAI could accelerate announcements ahead of summer developer events.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоKimi K3 released by…?
Kimi K3 released by…?
$26,452 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
April 30
7%
June 30
51%
$26,452 Обс.
April 30
$24,938 Обс.
7%
June 30
$1,514 Обс.
51%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI has yet to announce a firm timeline for Kimi K3, its next flagship large language model succeeding the 1-trillion-parameter K2.5 mixture-of-experts release in January 2026, leaving Polymarket traders skeptical of a near-term debut. A fresh April 18 technical update on cross-datacenter prefill/decode disaggregation—validated via a massively scaled Kimi Linear hybrid architecture—hints at infrastructure advances but sparked speculation rather than confirmation, pricing an April 30 public release at just 7% implied probability amid low volume. June 30 odds hover near 53% yes, balancing rumors of a 2T-parameter upgrade against recent K2.6 soft-launch for developers, which has eased urgency. Competitive pressure from DeepSeek and global AI labs like OpenAI could accelerate announcements ahead of summer developer events.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 2, 2026, 6:11 PM ET
Обсяг
$26,452Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 2, 2026, 6:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI has yet to announce a firm timeline for Kimi K3, its next flagship large language model succeeding the 1-trillion-parameter K2.5 mixture-of-experts release in January 2026, leaving Polymarket traders skeptical of a near-term debut. A fresh April 18 technical update on cross-datacenter prefill/decode disaggregation—validated via a massively scaled Kimi Linear hybrid architecture—hints at infrastructure advances but sparked speculation rather than confirmation, pricing an April 30 public release at just 7% implied probability amid low volume. June 30 odds hover near 53% yes, balancing rumors of a 2T-parameter upgrade against recent K2.6 soft-launch for developers, which has eased urgency. Competitive pressure from DeepSeek and global AI labs like OpenAI could accelerate announcements ahead of summer developer events.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$26,452Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 2, 2026, 6:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI has yet to announce a firm timeline for Kimi K3, its next flagship large language model succeeding the 1-trillion-parameter K2.5 mixture-of-experts release in January 2026, leaving Polymarket traders skeptical of a near-term debut. A fresh April 18 technical update on cross-datacenter prefill/decode disaggregation—validated via a massively scaled Kimi Linear hybrid architecture—hints at infrastructure advances but sparked speculation rather than confirmation, pricing an April 30 public release at just 7% implied probability amid low volume. June 30 odds hover near 53% yes, balancing rumors of a 2T-parameter upgrade against recent K2.6 soft-launch for developers, which has eased urgency. Competitive pressure from DeepSeek and global AI labs like OpenAI could accelerate announcements ahead of summer developer events.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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