Amid escalating US-Israel strikes on Iran since early March, Iranian forces have imposed a de facto blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, successfully targeting multiple commercial vessels with drones, missiles, and fast boats, including an Israel-linked ship set ablaze on April 4. This has slashed daily transits from over 130 to fewer than 15, disrupting global oil flows and spiking prices. On April 5, President Trump extended a deadline for Iran to halt attacks and reopen the strait, warning of devastating retaliation targeting power plants and infrastructure. Iranian officials defied the ultimatum, threatening broader shipping lanes, as Houthi allies eye Red Sea escalation; a US-led forcible reopening remains a high-risk flashpoint amid ongoing airstrikes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
$271,553 Обс.
Mar 31, 2026
March 18
No
March 19
No
March 20
No
March 21
No
March 22
No
March 23
No
March 24
No
March 25
No
March 26
No
March 27
No
March 28
No
March 29
No
March 30
Yes
March 31
No
$271,553 Обс.
March 18
$0 Обс.
No
March 19
$0 Обс.
No
March 20
$0 Обс.
No
March 21
$0 Обс.
No
March 22
$0 Обс.
No
March 23
$0 Обс.
No
March 24
$7,923 Обс.
No
March 25
$33,950 Обс.
No
March 26
$7,926 Обс.
No
March 27
$22,660 Обс.
No
March 28
$8,522 Обс.
No
March 29
$10,702 Обс.
No
March 30
$21,407 Обс.
Yes
March 31
$158,464 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid escalating US-Israel strikes on Iran since early March, Iranian forces have imposed a de facto blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, successfully targeting multiple commercial vessels with drones, missiles, and fast boats, including an Israel-linked ship set ablaze on April 4. This has slashed daily transits from over 130 to fewer than 15, disrupting global oil flows and spiking prices. On April 5, President Trump extended a deadline for Iran to halt attacks and reopen the strait, warning of devastating retaliation targeting power plants and infrastructure. Iranian officials defied the ultimatum, threatening broader shipping lanes, as Houthi allies eye Red Sea escalation; a US-led forcible reopening remains a high-risk flashpoint amid ongoing airstrikes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Обсяг
$271,553Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid escalating US-Israel strikes on Iran since early March, Iranian forces have imposed a de facto blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, successfully targeting multiple commercial vessels with drones, missiles, and fast boats, including an Israel-linked ship set ablaze on April 4. This has slashed daily transits from over 130 to fewer than 15, disrupting global oil flows and spiking prices. On April 5, President Trump extended a deadline for Iran to halt attacks and reopen the strait, warning of devastating retaliation targeting power plants and infrastructure. Iranian officials defied the ultimatum, threatening broader shipping lanes, as Houthi allies eye Red Sea escalation; a US-led forcible reopening remains a high-risk flashpoint amid ongoing airstrikes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Обсяг
$271,553Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Amid escalating US-Israel strikes on Iran since early March, Iranian forces have imposed a de facto blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, successfully targeting multiple commercial vessels with drones, missiles, and fast boats, including an Israel-linked ship set ablaze on April 4. This has slashed daily transits from over 130 to fewer than 15, disrupting global oil flows and spiking prices. On April 5, President Trump extended a deadline for Iran to halt attacks and reopen the strait, warning of devastating retaliation targeting power plants and infrastructure. Iranian officials defied the ultimatum, threatening broader shipping lanes, as Houthi allies eye Red Sea escalation; a US-led forcible reopening remains a high-risk flashpoint amid ongoing airstrikes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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