France's hung parliament, stemming from President Emmanuel Macron's 2024 snap legislative elections, continues fueling political instability with no party securing a majority and frequent no-confidence threats against minority governments. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu's recent survival of two no-confidence votes in January-February 2026—after invoking Article 49.3 to pass the delayed 2026 budget—has stabilized the administration, anchoring trader consensus at just 4% implied probability for a dissolution announcement by June 30, 2026. National Rally's advances in March municipal elections amid low turnout heighten opposition pressure, though Macron has downplayed further dissolutions. Bettors monitor potential fiscal disputes, procedural votes, or coalition fractures as triggers for snap elections before the 2029 term end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$1,057,349 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
30 червня 2026
3%
$1,057,349 Обс.
30 червня 2026
$75,716 Обс.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by September 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by October 10, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by October 17, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
France's hung parliament, stemming from President Emmanuel Macron's 2024 snap legislative elections, continues fueling political instability with no party securing a majority and frequent no-confidence threats against minority governments. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu's recent survival of two no-confidence votes in January-February 2026—after invoking Article 49.3 to pass the delayed 2026 budget—has stabilized the administration, anchoring trader consensus at just 4% implied probability for a dissolution announcement by June 30, 2026. National Rally's advances in March municipal elections amid low turnout heighten opposition pressure, though Macron has downplayed further dissolutions. Bettors monitor potential fiscal disputes, procedural votes, or coalition fractures as triggers for snap elections before the 2029 term end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Oct 22, 2025, 1:48 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,057,349Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2025Ринок відкрито
Oct 22, 2025, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by September 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by October 10, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by October 17, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
France's hung parliament, stemming from President Emmanuel Macron's 2024 snap legislative elections, continues fueling political instability with no party securing a majority and frequent no-confidence threats against minority governments. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu's recent survival of two no-confidence votes in January-February 2026—after invoking Article 49.3 to pass the delayed 2026 budget—has stabilized the administration, anchoring trader consensus at just 4% implied probability for a dissolution announcement by June 30, 2026. National Rally's advances in March municipal elections amid low turnout heighten opposition pressure, though Macron has downplayed further dissolutions. Bettors monitor potential fiscal disputes, procedural votes, or coalition fractures as triggers for snap elections before the 2029 term end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$1,057,349Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2025Ринок відкрито
Oct 22, 2025, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...France's hung parliament, stemming from President Emmanuel Macron's 2024 snap legislative elections, continues fueling political instability with no party securing a majority and frequent no-confidence threats against minority governments. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu's recent survival of two no-confidence votes in January-February 2026—after invoking Article 49.3 to pass the delayed 2026 budget—has stabilized the administration, anchoring trader consensus at just 4% implied probability for a dissolution announcement by June 30, 2026. National Rally's advances in March municipal elections amid low turnout heighten opposition pressure, though Macron has downplayed further dissolutions. Bettors monitor potential fiscal disputes, procedural votes, or coalition fractures as triggers for snap elections before the 2029 term end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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