France’s fragmented National Assembly has created ongoing instability, with Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s government facing multiple no-confidence motions from both National Rally and La France Insoumise lawmakers in mid-October 2026. A successful vote could prompt President Macron to dissolve the lower house under Article 12, triggering snap legislative elections as soon as constitutionally permitted following the 2024 vote. Traders are also watching the 2027 presidential contest, scheduled for April 18 and May 2, where polls show Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon leading; a new president could dissolve the Assembly shortly after taking office to secure a working majority. Constitutional limits on repeated dissolutions and the fixed presidential timeline remain key constraints on timing.