Trader sentiment for a CDC Level 3 Travel Health Notice by December 31 hovers at 52.5% implied probability for Yes, driven by the May 7 activation of CDC's lowest-tier Level 3 emergency response to a hantavirus cluster—confirmed Andes virus cases—linked to the M/V Hondius cruise ship traveling from Cape Verde to the Canary Islands, marking the freshest catalyst amid zero active Level 3 notices. This balance stems from key uncertainties in epidemiological trajectories: hantavirus's rare person-to-person potential, rising U.S. measles cases amid summer travel peaks (global Level 1 notice), entrenched Level 2 polio in over 20 countries, and ongoing avian influenza surveillance with no human clusters. Escalation hinges on confirmed case surges or transmission spikes; watch weekly CDC FluView reports, WHO outbreak briefs, and hantavirus genomic investigations for tipping data.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?
CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?
$117,030 Обс.
$117,030 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$117,030 Обс.
$117,030 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader sentiment for a CDC Level 3 Travel Health Notice by December 31 hovers at 52.5% implied probability for Yes, driven by the May 7 activation of CDC's lowest-tier Level 3 emergency response to a hantavirus cluster—confirmed Andes virus cases—linked to the M/V Hondius cruise ship traveling from Cape Verde to the Canary Islands, marking the freshest catalyst amid zero active Level 3 notices. This balance stems from key uncertainties in epidemiological trajectories: hantavirus's rare person-to-person potential, rising U.S. measles cases amid summer travel peaks (global Level 1 notice), entrenched Level 2 polio in over 20 countries, and ongoing avian influenza surveillance with no human clusters. Escalation hinges on confirmed case surges or transmission spikes; watch weekly CDC FluView reports, WHO outbreak briefs, and hantavirus genomic investigations for tipping data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Обсяг
$117,030Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader sentiment for a CDC Level 3 Travel Health Notice by December 31 hovers at 52.5% implied probability for Yes, driven by the May 7 activation of CDC's lowest-tier Level 3 emergency response to a hantavirus cluster—confirmed Andes virus cases—linked to the M/V Hondius cruise ship traveling from Cape Verde to the Canary Islands, marking the freshest catalyst amid zero active Level 3 notices. This balance stems from key uncertainties in epidemiological trajectories: hantavirus's rare person-to-person potential, rising U.S. measles cases amid summer travel peaks (global Level 1 notice), entrenched Level 2 polio in over 20 countries, and ongoing avian influenza surveillance with no human clusters. Escalation hinges on confirmed case surges or transmission spikes; watch weekly CDC FluView reports, WHO outbreak briefs, and hantavirus genomic investigations for tipping data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$117,030Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment for a CDC Level 3 Travel Health Notice by December 31 hovers at 52.5% implied probability for Yes, driven by the May 7 activation of CDC's lowest-tier Level 3 emergency response to a hantavirus cluster—confirmed Andes virus cases—linked to the M/V Hondius cruise ship traveling from Cape Verde to the Canary Islands, marking the freshest catalyst amid zero active Level 3 notices. This balance stems from key uncertainties in epidemiological trajectories: hantavirus's rare person-to-person potential, rising U.S. measles cases amid summer travel peaks (global Level 1 notice), entrenched Level 2 polio in over 20 countries, and ongoing avian influenza surveillance with no human clusters. Escalation hinges on confirmed case surges or transmission spikes; watch weekly CDC FluView reports, WHO outbreak briefs, and hantavirus genomic investigations for tipping data.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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