Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray leads trader consensus at 66.5% implied probability for the CA-13 House seat, buoyed by his narrow 2024 flip of the competitive Central Valley district and strong fundraising ($1.76 million cash on hand as of March 31). Recent ratings shifts, including Cook Political Report's Lean Democratic assessment in January citing Gray's overperformance of Kamala Harris in Merced County, underscore his edge ahead of the June 2 top-two primary against Democrat Daniel Garibay Rodriguez and Republicans Kevin Lincoln II and Vin Kruttiventi. Republicans trail at 24.5%, hampered by a divided field in the D+2 PVI district amid midterm headwinds for the GOP presidential party; a unified GOP nominee could narrow the gap in November.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-13 House Election Winner
CA-13 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
31%
Democratic Party
52%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
$1,315 Обс.
31%
Democratic Party
$805 Обс.
52%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray leads trader consensus at 66.5% implied probability for the CA-13 House seat, buoyed by his narrow 2024 flip of the competitive Central Valley district and strong fundraising ($1.76 million cash on hand as of March 31). Recent ratings shifts, including Cook Political Report's Lean Democratic assessment in January citing Gray's overperformance of Kamala Harris in Merced County, underscore his edge ahead of the June 2 top-two primary against Democrat Daniel Garibay Rodriguez and Republicans Kevin Lincoln II and Vin Kruttiventi. Republicans trail at 24.5%, hampered by a divided field in the D+2 PVI district amid midterm headwinds for the GOP presidential party; a unified GOP nominee could narrow the gap in November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ET
Обсяг
$2,120Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray leads trader consensus at 66.5% implied probability for the CA-13 House seat, buoyed by his narrow 2024 flip of the competitive Central Valley district and strong fundraising ($1.76 million cash on hand as of March 31). Recent ratings shifts, including Cook Political Report's Lean Democratic assessment in January citing Gray's overperformance of Kamala Harris in Merced County, underscore his edge ahead of the June 2 top-two primary against Democrat Daniel Garibay Rodriguez and Republicans Kevin Lincoln II and Vin Kruttiventi. Republicans trail at 24.5%, hampered by a divided field in the D+2 PVI district amid midterm headwinds for the GOP presidential party; a unified GOP nominee could narrow the gap in November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$2,120Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray leads trader consensus at 66.5% implied probability for the CA-13 House seat, buoyed by his narrow 2024 flip of the competitive Central Valley district and strong fundraising ($1.76 million cash on hand as of March 31). Recent ratings shifts, including Cook Political Report's Lean Democratic assessment in January citing Gray's overperformance of Kamala Harris in Merced County, underscore his edge ahead of the June 2 top-two primary against Democrat Daniel Garibay Rodriguez and Republicans Kevin Lincoln II and Vin Kruttiventi. Republicans trail at 24.5%, hampered by a divided field in the D+2 PVI district amid midterm headwinds for the GOP presidential party; a unified GOP nominee could narrow the gap in November.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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