**JoAnna Mendoza holds an 82.5% implied probability in the AZ-06 House race, well ahead of incumbent Juan Ciscomani at 16.5%.** The district, rated a toss-up by Cook, Sabato, and Inside Elections, features narrow past results for Ciscomani and recent Democratic strength in statewide contests. Polls from spring and early summer showed Mendoza ahead or tied by 1–3 points, with the race centered on affordability, tariffs, healthcare access, and border issues. Mendoza’s fundraising edge, military veteran background, and early voting underway since October 7 have supported trader positioning, while the November 3 general election timeline leaves limited room for late shifts. Markets reflect consensus on these fundamentals over raw polling volatility.