Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs the 1.15–1.19ºC outcome at 95.9% implied probability, driven by NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index release around May 10, 2026, placing April's anomaly firmly in that bin versus the 1951–1980 baseline using combined land-ocean observations. This aligns with Copernicus ERA5 data confirming April 2026 as the joint third-warmest April globally (14.89°C, +0.52°C above 1991–2020 average, ~1.43°C above pre-industrial), fueled by record-high tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and a shift from ENSO-neutral to emerging El Niño conditions boosting atmospheric heat. Markets resolve on NASA's initial figure regardless of revisions, but discrepancies with NOAA's forthcoming report or baseline adjustments could challenge this positioning amid inherent reanalysis uncertainties.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоApril 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 96.5%
1.20–1.24ºC 2.8%
1.10–1.14ºC <1%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
$350,959 Обс.
$350,959 Обс.
May 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
1%
1.15–1.19ºC
97%
1.20–1.24ºC
3%
1.25–1.29ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC 96.5%
1.20–1.24ºC 2.8%
1.10–1.14ºC <1%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
$350,959 Обс.
$350,959 Обс.
May 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$60,349 Обс.
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$62,550 Обс.
1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$47,914 Обс.
97%
1.20–1.24ºC
$69,519 Обс.
3%
1.25–1.29ºC
$62,660 Обс.
<1%
>1.29ºC
$47,967 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs the 1.15–1.19ºC outcome at 95.9% implied probability, driven by NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index release around May 10, 2026, placing April's anomaly firmly in that bin versus the 1951–1980 baseline using combined land-ocean observations. This aligns with Copernicus ERA5 data confirming April 2026 as the joint third-warmest April globally (14.89°C, +0.52°C above 1991–2020 average, ~1.43°C above pre-industrial), fueled by record-high tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and a shift from ENSO-neutral to emerging El Niño conditions boosting atmospheric heat. Markets resolve on NASA's initial figure regardless of revisions, but discrepancies with NOAA's forthcoming report or baseline adjustments could challenge this positioning amid inherent reanalysis uncertainties.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Обсяг
$350,959Дата завершення
May 10, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs the 1.15–1.19ºC outcome at 95.9% implied probability, driven by NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index release around May 10, 2026, placing April's anomaly firmly in that bin versus the 1951–1980 baseline using combined land-ocean observations. This aligns with Copernicus ERA5 data confirming April 2026 as the joint third-warmest April globally (14.89°C, +0.52°C above 1991–2020 average, ~1.43°C above pre-industrial), fueled by record-high tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and a shift from ENSO-neutral to emerging El Niño conditions boosting atmospheric heat. Markets resolve on NASA's initial figure regardless of revisions, but discrepancies with NOAA's forthcoming report or baseline adjustments could challenge this positioning amid inherent reanalysis uncertainties.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Обсяг
$350,959Дата завершення
May 10, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs the 1.15–1.19ºC outcome at 95.9% implied probability, driven by NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index release around May 10, 2026, placing April's anomaly firmly in that bin versus the 1951–1980 baseline using combined land-ocean observations. This aligns with Copernicus ERA5 data confirming April 2026 as the joint third-warmest April globally (14.89°C, +0.52°C above 1991–2020 average, ~1.43°C above pre-industrial), fueled by record-high tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and a shift from ENSO-neutral to emerging El Niño conditions boosting atmospheric heat. Markets resolve on NASA's initial figure regardless of revisions, but discrepancies with NOAA's forthcoming report or baseline adjustments could challenge this positioning amid inherent reanalysis uncertainties.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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