Omar Aziz (PSD) enters the October 25 runoff as the clear frontrunner after capturing 40.6% in the first round on October 4, ahead of Professora Maria do Carmo (PL) at 24.5% and incumbent Roberto Cidade (União Brasil) at 21.9%. Aziz secured victories in 53 of 62 municipalities, drawing particular strength from interior voters, while Maria do Carmo prevailed mainly in Manaus. His prior service as governor and senator, combined with a broad coalition including PSD, MDB, and Republicanos, has consolidated support among key blocs. Maria do Carmo advanced by edging out Cidade but trails significantly in statewide preference surveys and faces structural disadvantages in turnout and geographic reach. Low probabilities for remaining candidates reflect their first-round elimination and limited crossover appeal. The runoff timeline and confirmed vote shares underpin trader consensus on Aziz's elevated odds.