Trader consensus prices a 92.5% chance against President Trump issuing a pardon or commutation to Ghislaine Maxwell by year-end 2026, driven by the absence of any official White House signals or executive actions 15 months into his term despite her 2021 federal sex-trafficking conviction and 20-year sentence. Her attorney stated on April 17, 2026, plans to seek clemency after Epstein-related scrutiny fades, echoing earlier non-committal remarks from Trump in October 2025 that he would "look into" it. Political backlash risks from Epstein associations, victim opposition, and lack of direct alliance with Maxwell outweigh speculative incentives, with no scheduled hearings or deadlines altering this procedural status quo. Late-breaking scandals or testimony deals could shift odds, though historical pardon patterns favor political loyalists.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiEvet
$539,331 Hac.
$539,331 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$539,331 Hac.
$539,331 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices a 92.5% chance against President Trump issuing a pardon or commutation to Ghislaine Maxwell by year-end 2026, driven by the absence of any official White House signals or executive actions 15 months into his term despite her 2021 federal sex-trafficking conviction and 20-year sentence. Her attorney stated on April 17, 2026, plans to seek clemency after Epstein-related scrutiny fades, echoing earlier non-committal remarks from Trump in October 2025 that he would "look into" it. Political backlash risks from Epstein associations, victim opposition, and lack of direct alliance with Maxwell outweigh speculative incentives, with no scheduled hearings or deadlines altering this procedural status quo. Late-breaking scandals or testimony deals could shift odds, though historical pardon patterns favor political loyalists.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ET
Hacim
$539,331Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices a 92.5% chance against President Trump issuing a pardon or commutation to Ghislaine Maxwell by year-end 2026, driven by the absence of any official White House signals or executive actions 15 months into his term despite her 2021 federal sex-trafficking conviction and 20-year sentence. Her attorney stated on April 17, 2026, plans to seek clemency after Epstein-related scrutiny fades, echoing earlier non-committal remarks from Trump in October 2025 that he would "look into" it. Political backlash risks from Epstein associations, victim opposition, and lack of direct alliance with Maxwell outweigh speculative incentives, with no scheduled hearings or deadlines altering this procedural status quo. Late-breaking scandals or testimony deals could shift odds, though historical pardon patterns favor political loyalists.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Hacim
$539,331Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Trader consensus prices a 92.5% chance against President Trump issuing a pardon or commutation to Ghislaine Maxwell by year-end 2026, driven by the absence of any official White House signals or executive actions 15 months into his term despite her 2021 federal sex-trafficking conviction and 20-year sentence. Her attorney stated on April 17, 2026, plans to seek clemency after Epstein-related scrutiny fades, echoing earlier non-committal remarks from Trump in October 2025 that he would "look into" it. Political backlash risks from Epstein associations, victim opposition, and lack of direct alliance with Maxwell outweigh speculative incentives, with no scheduled hearings or deadlines altering this procedural status quo. Late-breaking scandals or testimony deals could shift odds, though historical pardon patterns favor political loyalists.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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