Trader consensus prices "No" at 77% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any U.S. military offensive aimed at establishing control over Latin American territory despite heightened tensions. The January 3 special operation in Venezuela, which captured President Nicolás Maduro via strikes without occupying land, did not qualify under market resolution criteria, steadying odds against broader invasion. Recent Pentagon contingency planning for possible Cuba operations, reported April 15 amid fuel blockades and invasion threats from President Trump, has prompted defiant rhetoric from Havana and aid pledges from Spain, Brazil, and Mexico, but no troop deployments or control assertions have followed. U.S. focus remains on targeted counter-narcotics strikes, joint exercises like those in Ecuador, and sanctions rather than territorial conquests, given international backlash and high escalation risks through year-end.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiEvet
$208,668 Hac.
$208,668 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$208,668 Hac.
$208,668 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus prices "No" at 77% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any U.S. military offensive aimed at establishing control over Latin American territory despite heightened tensions. The January 3 special operation in Venezuela, which captured President Nicolás Maduro via strikes without occupying land, did not qualify under market resolution criteria, steadying odds against broader invasion. Recent Pentagon contingency planning for possible Cuba operations, reported April 15 amid fuel blockades and invasion threats from President Trump, has prompted defiant rhetoric from Havana and aid pledges from Spain, Brazil, and Mexico, but no troop deployments or control assertions have followed. U.S. focus remains on targeted counter-narcotics strikes, joint exercises like those in Ecuador, and sanctions rather than territorial conquests, given international backlash and high escalation risks through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
Hacim
$208,668Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus prices "No" at 77% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any U.S. military offensive aimed at establishing control over Latin American territory despite heightened tensions. The January 3 special operation in Venezuela, which captured President Nicolás Maduro via strikes without occupying land, did not qualify under market resolution criteria, steadying odds against broader invasion. Recent Pentagon contingency planning for possible Cuba operations, reported April 15 amid fuel blockades and invasion threats from President Trump, has prompted defiant rhetoric from Havana and aid pledges from Spain, Brazil, and Mexico, but no troop deployments or control assertions have followed. U.S. focus remains on targeted counter-narcotics strikes, joint exercises like those in Ecuador, and sanctions rather than territorial conquests, given international backlash and high escalation risks through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Hacim
$208,668Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 77% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any U.S. military offensive aimed at establishing control over Latin American territory despite heightened tensions. The January 3 special operation in Venezuela, which captured President Nicolás Maduro via strikes without occupying land, did not qualify under market resolution criteria, steadying odds against broader invasion. Recent Pentagon contingency planning for possible Cuba operations, reported April 15 amid fuel blockades and invasion threats from President Trump, has prompted defiant rhetoric from Havana and aid pledges from Spain, Brazil, and Mexico, but no troop deployments or control assertions have followed. U.S. focus remains on targeted counter-narcotics strikes, joint exercises like those in Ecuador, and sanctions rather than territorial conquests, given international backlash and high escalation risks through year-end.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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