Trader consensus assigns a 96.4% implied probability to Alberta not joining the United States, driven by formidable constitutional barriers under Canada's Clarity Act, which mandates federal negotiations and a clear referendum majority for any secession—outcomes separatists have yet to achieve despite claiming 177,732 signatures for an independence petition on March 31. Premier Danielle Smith opposes outright separation, focusing the October 19 provincial referendum on sovereignty issues like immigration rather than exit. Recent opposition includes the Alberta NDP's April 9 "For Alberta, For Canada" campaign and a five-year-high but minority separatism poll on April 8, underscoring limited support. Even independence would require improbable US congressional admission as a state, with no bilateral talks evident.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiYENİ
YENİ
31 Ara 2026
YENİ
YENİ
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.Trader consensus assigns a 96.4% implied probability to Alberta not joining the United States, driven by formidable constitutional barriers under Canada's Clarity Act, which mandates federal negotiations and a clear referendum majority for any secession—outcomes separatists have yet to achieve despite claiming 177,732 signatures for an independence petition on March 31. Premier Danielle Smith opposes outright separation, focusing the October 19 provincial referendum on sovereignty issues like immigration rather than exit. Recent opposition includes the Alberta NDP's April 9 "For Alberta, For Canada" campaign and a five-year-high but minority separatism poll on April 8, underscoring limited support. Even independence would require improbable US congressional admission as a state, with no bilateral talks evident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Piyasa Açıldı: Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ET
Hacim
$2,056Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.Trader consensus assigns a 96.4% implied probability to Alberta not joining the United States, driven by formidable constitutional barriers under Canada's Clarity Act, which mandates federal negotiations and a clear referendum majority for any secession—outcomes separatists have yet to achieve despite claiming 177,732 signatures for an independence petition on March 31. Premier Danielle Smith opposes outright separation, focusing the October 19 provincial referendum on sovereignty issues like immigration rather than exit. Recent opposition includes the Alberta NDP's April 9 "For Alberta, For Canada" campaign and a five-year-high but minority separatism poll on April 8, underscoring limited support. Even independence would require improbable US congressional admission as a state, with no bilateral talks evident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Hacim
$2,056Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 96.4% implied probability to Alberta not joining the United States, driven by formidable constitutional barriers under Canada's Clarity Act, which mandates federal negotiations and a clear referendum majority for any secession—outcomes separatists have yet to achieve despite claiming 177,732 signatures for an independence petition on March 31. Premier Danielle Smith opposes outright separation, focusing the October 19 provincial referendum on sovereignty issues like immigration rather than exit. Recent opposition includes the Alberta NDP's April 9 "For Alberta, For Canada" campaign and a five-year-high but minority separatism poll on April 8, underscoring limited support. Even independence would require improbable US congressional admission as a state, with no bilateral talks evident.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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