Trader consensus prices an 83.5% probability that President Trump completes his term through January 2027, reflecting steep institutional barriers to early removal despite recent Democratic escalations. Over the past two weeks, House Democrats led by Rep. Jamie Raskin introduced impeachment articles (H.Res. 939) and a bill for a 25th Amendment commission chaired by Vice President JD Vance, spurred by Trump's threats to "wipe out" Iran's civilization—later softened into a ceasefire—and controversial social media posts, including an AI-generated image depicting himself as Jesus. NAACP cited health concerns, but no primary evidence supports incapacity. With Republican House and Senate majorities, impeachment conviction requires a two-thirds Senate vote unlikely absent GOP defections, while 25th Amendment invocation demands Vance plus cabinet majority loyalty. Trump remains active, signing an executive order on medical research April 18, underscoring stability ahead of 2026 midterms.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiEvet
$7,158,398 Hac.
$7,158,398 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$7,158,398 Hac.
$7,158,398 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices an 83.5% probability that President Trump completes his term through January 2027, reflecting steep institutional barriers to early removal despite recent Democratic escalations. Over the past two weeks, House Democrats led by Rep. Jamie Raskin introduced impeachment articles (H.Res. 939) and a bill for a 25th Amendment commission chaired by Vice President JD Vance, spurred by Trump's threats to "wipe out" Iran's civilization—later softened into a ceasefire—and controversial social media posts, including an AI-generated image depicting himself as Jesus. NAACP cited health concerns, but no primary evidence supports incapacity. With Republican House and Senate majorities, impeachment conviction requires a two-thirds Senate vote unlikely absent GOP defections, while 25th Amendment invocation demands Vance plus cabinet majority loyalty. Trump remains active, signing an executive order on medical research April 18, underscoring stability ahead of 2026 midterms.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Piyasa Açıldı: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Hacim
$7,158,398Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices an 83.5% probability that President Trump completes his term through January 2027, reflecting steep institutional barriers to early removal despite recent Democratic escalations. Over the past two weeks, House Democrats led by Rep. Jamie Raskin introduced impeachment articles (H.Res. 939) and a bill for a 25th Amendment commission chaired by Vice President JD Vance, spurred by Trump's threats to "wipe out" Iran's civilization—later softened into a ceasefire—and controversial social media posts, including an AI-generated image depicting himself as Jesus. NAACP cited health concerns, but no primary evidence supports incapacity. With Republican House and Senate majorities, impeachment conviction requires a two-thirds Senate vote unlikely absent GOP defections, while 25th Amendment invocation demands Vance plus cabinet majority loyalty. Trump remains active, signing an executive order on medical research April 18, underscoring stability ahead of 2026 midterms.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$7,158,406Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 83.5% probability that President Trump completes his term through January 2027, reflecting steep institutional barriers to early removal despite recent Democratic escalations. Over the past two weeks, House Democrats led by Rep. Jamie Raskin introduced impeachment articles (H.Res. 939) and a bill for a 25th Amendment commission chaired by Vice President JD Vance, spurred by Trump's threats to "wipe out" Iran's civilization—later softened into a ceasefire—and controversial social media posts, including an AI-generated image depicting himself as Jesus. NAACP cited health concerns, but no primary evidence supports incapacity. With Republican House and Senate majorities, impeachment conviction requires a two-thirds Senate vote unlikely absent GOP defections, while 25th Amendment invocation demands Vance plus cabinet majority loyalty. Trump remains active, signing an executive order on medical research April 18, underscoring stability ahead of 2026 midterms.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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