Trader consensus favors "No" at 81.5% implied probability for a magnitude 8.0+ megaquake by June 30, reflecting the inherent unpredictability of great earthquakes and baseline global rates of roughly one such event annually, with none recorded in 2026 despite recent M7.4 Indonesia (April 1) and M7.3 Vanuatu (March 30) events that produced no escalating aftershocks. USGS monitoring shows normal seismic patterns worldwide over the past 30 days, including a M5.7 Nevada quake (April 14) far below megaquake thresholds, and no anomalous precursors like strain accumulation on major subduction zones such as the Nankai Trough or Cascadia. Continuous real-time data from the USGS will track activity through resolution, though short-term forecasting remains impossible due to chaotic fault dynamics.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi30 Haziran'a kadar mega deprem mi?
30 Haziran'a kadar mega deprem mi?
Evet
$49,186 Hac.
$49,186 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
Evet
$49,186 Hac.
$49,186 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus favors "No" at 81.5% implied probability for a magnitude 8.0+ megaquake by June 30, reflecting the inherent unpredictability of great earthquakes and baseline global rates of roughly one such event annually, with none recorded in 2026 despite recent M7.4 Indonesia (April 1) and M7.3 Vanuatu (March 30) events that produced no escalating aftershocks. USGS monitoring shows normal seismic patterns worldwide over the past 30 days, including a M5.7 Nevada quake (April 14) far below megaquake thresholds, and no anomalous precursors like strain accumulation on major subduction zones such as the Nankai Trough or Cascadia. Continuous real-time data from the USGS will track activity through resolution, though short-term forecasting remains impossible due to chaotic fault dynamics.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Hacim
$49,186Bitiş Tarihi
30 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus favors "No" at 81.5% implied probability for a magnitude 8.0+ megaquake by June 30, reflecting the inherent unpredictability of great earthquakes and baseline global rates of roughly one such event annually, with none recorded in 2026 despite recent M7.4 Indonesia (April 1) and M7.3 Vanuatu (March 30) events that produced no escalating aftershocks. USGS monitoring shows normal seismic patterns worldwide over the past 30 days, including a M5.7 Nevada quake (April 14) far below megaquake thresholds, and no anomalous precursors like strain accumulation on major subduction zones such as the Nankai Trough or Cascadia. Continuous real-time data from the USGS will track activity through resolution, though short-term forecasting remains impossible due to chaotic fault dynamics.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Hacim
$49,186Bitiş Tarihi
30 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 81.5% implied probability for a magnitude 8.0+ megaquake by June 30, reflecting the inherent unpredictability of great earthquakes and baseline global rates of roughly one such event annually, with none recorded in 2026 despite recent M7.4 Indonesia (April 1) and M7.3 Vanuatu (March 30) events that produced no escalating aftershocks. USGS monitoring shows normal seismic patterns worldwide over the past 30 days, including a M5.7 Nevada quake (April 14) far below megaquake thresholds, and no anomalous precursors like strain accumulation on major subduction zones such as the Nankai Trough or Cascadia. Continuous real-time data from the USGS will track activity through resolution, though short-term forecasting remains impossible due to chaotic fault dynamics.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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