Trader consensus prices a 77% implied probability on "No" for a major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, driven by NASA's Sentry system showing zero potential Earth impacts from tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) this year and comprehensive planetary defense monitoring that catalogs all known threats above detection thresholds. Recent Q1 2026 surge in fireball reports—doubling large events per American Meteor Society data—stems from enhanced sensors at the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, which released early data identifying over 11,000 new asteroids by early April, but confirmed airbursts like the March 17 Ohio event (0.25-0.37 kt) and others remain well below 10 kt per CNEOS fireball logs. With nine months left, traders weigh historical rarity against improving detection tech minimizing undetected risks, awaiting any late-year NEO discoveries.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi2026 'da büyük meteor çarpması (10kt +)?
2026 'da büyük meteor çarpması (10kt +)?
Evet
$145,359 Hac.
$145,359 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$145,359 Hac.
$145,359 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus prices a 77% implied probability on "No" for a major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, driven by NASA's Sentry system showing zero potential Earth impacts from tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) this year and comprehensive planetary defense monitoring that catalogs all known threats above detection thresholds. Recent Q1 2026 surge in fireball reports—doubling large events per American Meteor Society data—stems from enhanced sensors at the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, which released early data identifying over 11,000 new asteroids by early April, but confirmed airbursts like the March 17 Ohio event (0.25-0.37 kt) and others remain well below 10 kt per CNEOS fireball logs. With nine months left, traders weigh historical rarity against improving detection tech minimizing undetected risks, awaiting any late-year NEO discoveries.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Hacim
$145,359Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus prices a 77% implied probability on "No" for a major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, driven by NASA's Sentry system showing zero potential Earth impacts from tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) this year and comprehensive planetary defense monitoring that catalogs all known threats above detection thresholds. Recent Q1 2026 surge in fireball reports—doubling large events per American Meteor Society data—stems from enhanced sensors at the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, which released early data identifying over 11,000 new asteroids by early April, but confirmed airbursts like the March 17 Ohio event (0.25-0.37 kt) and others remain well below 10 kt per CNEOS fireball logs. With nine months left, traders weigh historical rarity against improving detection tech minimizing undetected risks, awaiting any late-year NEO discoveries.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Hacim
$145,359Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 77% implied probability on "No" for a major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, driven by NASA's Sentry system showing zero potential Earth impacts from tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) this year and comprehensive planetary defense monitoring that catalogs all known threats above detection thresholds. Recent Q1 2026 surge in fireball reports—doubling large events per American Meteor Society data—stems from enhanced sensors at the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, which released early data identifying over 11,000 new asteroids by early April, but confirmed airbursts like the March 17 Ohio event (0.25-0.37 kt) and others remain well below 10 kt per CNEOS fireball logs. With nine months left, traders weigh historical rarity against improving detection tech minimizing undetected risks, awaiting any late-year NEO discoveries.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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