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Seçimler·Orta Doğu

Lübnan Parlamento Seçimlerinin Kazananı

Market icon
Seçimler·Orta Doğu

Lübnan Parlamento Seçimlerinin Kazananı

Amal Hareketi (Amal) 8.6%

Lübnan Güçleri (LF) 8%

Özgür Yurtsever Hareketi (FPM) 3.6%

Taqaddom Partisi 3.3%

Polymarket

$491,267 Hac.

Amal Hareketi (Amal) 8.6%

Lübnan Güçleri (LF) 8%

Özgür Yurtsever Hareketi (FPM) 3.6%

Taqaddom Partisi 3.3%

Polymarket

$491,267 Hac.

Amal Hareketi (Amal)

$47,628 Hac.

9%

Lübnan Güçleri (LF)

$147,650 Hac.

8%

Özgür Yurtsever Hareketi (FPM)

$72,611 Hac.

4%

Taqaddom Partisi

$4,726 Hac.

3%

Bağımsızlık Hareketi (IM)

$2,583 Hac.

3%

İslami Hayır Projeleri Derneği (ICPA)

$3,005 Hac.

3%

ReLebanon

$2,196 Hac.

3%

Ulusal Liberal Parti (ULP)

$3,070 Hac.

3%

Hizbullah (Hezb)

$42,028 Hac.

2%

Ulusal Diyalog Partisi (NDP)

$41,183 Hac.

2%

Watani İttifakı (Watani)

$3,375 Hac.

2%

Kataeb Partisi (Kataeb)

$3,223 Hac.

2%

Lübnan'daki Arap Sosyalist Baas Partisi (Baas)

$3,984 Hac.

2%

Popüler Nasırî Örgütü (PNO)

$2,226 Hac.

2%

Mada Partisi (Mada)

$22,627 Hac.

1%

Haysiyet Hareketi (DM)

$22,250 Hac.

1%

Birlik Partisi (BP)

$2,707 Hac.

1%

İslam Grubu (İG)

$3,075 Hac.

1%

Ermeni Devrimci Federasyonu (EDF)

$4,764 Hac.

1%

Marada Hareketi (MH)

$2,489 Hac.

1%

İlerici Sosyalist Parti (PSP)

$47,054 Hac.

1%

Lana – Sosyal Demokrat Parti (Lana)

$3,966 Hac.

<1%

Khatt Ahmar

$2,850 Hac.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliament extended its mandate by two years on March 9 amid the Israel-Hezbollah war, postponing the May 2026 parliamentary elections to 2028 and fueling trader uncertainty in this fragmented market. No recent polls exist, but low odds across outcomes reflect the confessional system's entrenched sectarian divisions, with Amal Movement's slight edge tied to Speaker Nabih Berri's Shia base and alliance potential with Hezbollah, while Lebanese Forces trails closely on Christian opposition to militia influence. Free Patriotic Movement and smaller parties like Taqaddom lag due to splintered support. Consolidation could hinge on post-war ceasefires, Hezbollah disarmament resolutions, diaspora voter turnout (over 150,000 registered), or electoral law reforms enabling proportional representation tweaks.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Hacim
$491,267
Bitiş Tarihi
31 May 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliament extended its mandate by two years on March 9 amid the Israel-Hezbollah war, postponing the May 2026 parliamentary elections to 2028 and fueling trader uncertainty in this fragmented market. No recent polls exist, but low odds across outcomes reflect the confessional system's entrenched sectarian divisions, with Amal Movement's slight edge tied to Speaker Nabih Berri's Shia base and alliance potential with Hezbollah, while Lebanese Forces trails closely on Christian opposition to militia influence. Free Patriotic Movement and smaller parties like Taqaddom lag due to splintered support. Consolidation could hinge on post-war ceasefires, Hezbollah disarmament resolutions, diaspora voter turnout (over 150,000 registered), or electoral law reforms enabling proportional representation tweaks.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Hacim
$491,267
Bitiş Tarihi
31 May 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.

Sıkça Sorulan Sorular

"Lübnan Parlamento Seçimlerinin Kazananı", yatırımcıların ne olacağına inandıklarına göre hisse alıp sattığı 23 olası sonuçlu Polymarket'teki bir tahmin piyasasıdır. Mevcut lider sonuç 9% ile "Amal Hareketi (Amal)", ardından 8% ile "Lübnan Güçleri (LF)" gelmektedir. Fiyatlar gerçek zamanlı kitle kaynaklı olasılıkları yansıtır. Örneğin, 9¢ fiyatlı bir hisse, piyasanın toplu olarak o sonuca 9% olasılık atadığı anlamına gelir. Bu oranlar, yatırımcılar yeni gelişmelere ve bilgilere tepki verdikçe sürekli değişir. Doğru sonuçtaki hisseler piyasa çözümlemesinde her biri 1$ karşılığında tahsil edilebilir.

Bugün itibarıyla "Lübnan Parlamento Seçimlerinin Kazananı" toplam $491.3K işlem hacmi oluşturmuştur piyasa Jan 6, 2026 tarihinde açıldığından beri. Bu düzeyde işlem aktivitesi Polymarket topluluğundan güçlü katılımı yansıtır ve mevcut oranların derin bir piyasa katılımcıları havuzu tarafından bilgilendirilmesini sağlar. Bu sayfada canlı fiyat hareketlerini takip edebilir ve herhangi bir sonuç üzerinde doğrudan işlem yapabilirsiniz.

"Lübnan Parlamento Seçimlerinin Kazananı" üzerinde işlem yapmak için bu sayfada listelenen 23 mevcut sonuca göz atın. Her sonuç, piyasanın ima edilen olasılığını temsil eden bir güncel fiyat gösterir. Pozisyon almak için en olası olduğuna inandığınız sonucu seçin, lehine işlem yapmak için "Evet" veya aleyhine işlem yapmak için "Hayır" seçin, miktarınızı girin ve "İşlem Yap"a tıklayın. Piyasa çözümlendiğinde seçtiğiniz sonuç doğruysa, "Evet" hisseleriniz her biri 1$ öder. Yanlışsa 0$ öderler. Ayrıca kâr kilitlemek veya zararı kesmek isterseniz çözümlemeden önce istediğiniz zaman hisselerinizi satabilirsiniz.

Bu tamamen açık bir piyasa. "Lübnan Parlamento Seçimlerinin Kazananı" için mevcut lider yalnızca 9% ile "Amal Hareketi (Amal)", ardından yakın takipte 8% ile "Lübnan Güçleri (LF)" gelmektedir. Hiçbir sonuç güçlü bir çoğunluk elde edemediğinden, yatırımcılar bunu oldukça belirsiz olarak görüyor ve bu benzersiz işlem fırsatları sunabilir. Bu oranlar gerçek zamanlı güncellenir, bu yüzden olasılıkların nasıl geliştiğini izlemek için bu sayfayı yer imlerine ekleyin.

"Lübnan Parlamento Seçimlerinin Kazananı" için çözümleme kuralları, her sonucun kazanan olarak ilan edilmesi için tam olarak ne olması gerektiğini tanımlar — sonucu belirlemek için kullanılan resmi veri kaynakları dahil. Bu sayfadaki yorumların üzerindeki "Kurallar" bölümünde tam çözümleme kriterlerini inceleyebilirsiniz. İşlem yapmadan önce kuralları dikkatli bir şekilde okumanızı öneririz, çünkü bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğini yöneten kesin koşulları, istisnai durumları ve kaynakları belirtir.