Following Israel's limited airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26, 2024—which avoided nuclear or oil facilities—and Tehran's downplayed response signaling no major retaliation, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low near-term probabilities for another direct Iranian strike on Israel. Iran's Supreme Leader declared prior October 1 ballistic missile barrages "concluded," with most projectiles intercepted via U.S., Jordanian, and allied defenses. Ongoing proxy tensions via Hezbollah border clashes and Houthi Red Sea attacks persist, but U.S. diplomatic pressure for restraint amid the presidential election and potential Israel-Lebanon ceasefire talks tempers escalation risks, shaping cautious market pricing.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi$572,636 Hac.
March 1
Yes
March 2
Yes
March 3
Yes
March 4
Yes
March 5
Yes
March 6
No
March 7
Yes
March 8
Yes
March 9
Yes
March 10
Yes
$572,636 Hac.
March 1
$174,011 Hac.
Yes
March 2
$398,625 Hac.
Yes
March 3
$0 Hac.
Yes
March 4
$0 Hac.
Yes
March 5
$0 Hac.
Yes
March 6
$0 Hac.
No
March 7
$0 Hac.
Yes
March 8
$0 Hac.
Yes
March 9
$0 Hac.
Yes
March 10
$0 Hac.
Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israel or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Following Israel's limited airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26, 2024—which avoided nuclear or oil facilities—and Tehran's downplayed response signaling no major retaliation, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low near-term probabilities for another direct Iranian strike on Israel. Iran's Supreme Leader declared prior October 1 ballistic missile barrages "concluded," with most projectiles intercepted via U.S., Jordanian, and allied defenses. Ongoing proxy tensions via Hezbollah border clashes and Houthi Red Sea attacks persist, but U.S. diplomatic pressure for restraint amid the presidential election and potential Israel-Lebanon ceasefire talks tempers escalation risks, shaping cautious market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israel or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israel or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Piyasa Açıldı: Feb 28, 2026, 11:32 AM ET
Hacim
$572,636Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 28, 2026, 11:32 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Sonuç önerildi: Yes
İtiraz edildi
Sonuç önerildi: Yes
İtiraz edildi
Kesin sonuç: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israel or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Following Israel's limited airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26, 2024—which avoided nuclear or oil facilities—and Tehran's downplayed response signaling no major retaliation, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low near-term probabilities for another direct Iranian strike on Israel. Iran's Supreme Leader declared prior October 1 ballistic missile barrages "concluded," with most projectiles intercepted via U.S., Jordanian, and allied defenses. Ongoing proxy tensions via Hezbollah border clashes and Houthi Red Sea attacks persist, but U.S. diplomatic pressure for restraint amid the presidential election and potential Israel-Lebanon ceasefire talks tempers escalation risks, shaping cautious market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israel or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israel or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Hacim
$572,636Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 28, 2026, 11:32 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Sonuç önerildi: Yes
İtiraz edildi
Sonuç önerildi: Yes
İtiraz edildi
Kesin sonuç: Yes
Following Israel's limited airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26, 2024—which avoided nuclear or oil facilities—and Tehran's downplayed response signaling no major retaliation, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low near-term probabilities for another direct Iranian strike on Israel. Iran's Supreme Leader declared prior October 1 ballistic missile barrages "concluded," with most projectiles intercepted via U.S., Jordanian, and allied defenses. Ongoing proxy tensions via Hezbollah border clashes and Houthi Red Sea attacks persist, but U.S. diplomatic pressure for restraint amid the presidential election and potential Israel-Lebanon ceasefire talks tempers escalation risks, shaping cautious market pricing.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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