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Dünya·Orta Doğu

İran lideri 2026 'nın sonu mu?

Market icon
Dünya·Orta Doğu

İran lideri 2026 'nın sonu mu?

Mojtaba Khamenei 68.1%

Reza Pahlavi 9%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 7.0%

Hasan Ruhani 5.0%

Polymarket

$6,594,165 Hac.

Mojtaba Khamenei 68.1%

Reza Pahlavi 9%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 7.0%

Hasan Ruhani 5.0%

Polymarket

$6,594,165 Hac.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$1,562,406 Hac.

68%

Reza Pahlavi

$155,938 Hac.

9%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$173,783 Hac.

7%

Hasan Ruhani

$281,908 Hac.

5%

Alireza Arafi

$780,954 Hac.

4%

Devlet Başkanı Yok

$370,104 Hac.

2%

Abbas Araghchi

$106,136 Hac.

1%

Hassan Khomeini

$733,029 Hac.

1%

Muhammed Mirbakiri

$277,715 Hac.

1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$201,016 Hac.

1%

Mahmud Ahmedinejad

$52,176 Hac.

<1%

Mohammad Hatemi

$247,220 Hac.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$48,049 Hac.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$178,156 Hac.

<1%

Maryam Rajavi

$258,426 Hac.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$55,594 Hac.

<1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$245,157 Hac.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$77,108 Hac.

<1%

Hasan Şeriatmadari

$155,293 Hac.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$26,455 Hac.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$35,029 Hac.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$29,155 Hac.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$21,917 Hac.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$52,699 Hac.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$37,515 Hac.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$69,314 Hac.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$49,560 Hac.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$32,547 Hac.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$16,686 Hac.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$26,260 Hac.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 68% implied probability as Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026, driven by his formal appointment by the Assembly of Experts on March 8 following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israeli strikes amid escalating conflict. Backed by IRGC hardliners, this signals regime continuity despite persistent unverified rumors since late March of his incapacitation—reports of coma, surgeries, or absence from public view, with statements read by proxies using his image. Reza Pahlavi's 8.5% reflects exiled opposition hopes for transition amid war pressures, while Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf's 7% stems from his parliamentary leadership and rumored backchannel diplomacy positioning him in the power vacuum. Odds hold firm absent confirmed upheaval or diplomatic breakthroughs.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Hacim
$6,594,165
Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 68% implied probability as Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026, driven by his formal appointment by the Assembly of Experts on March 8 following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israeli strikes amid escalating conflict. Backed by IRGC hardliners, this signals regime continuity despite persistent unverified rumors since late March of his incapacitation—reports of coma, surgeries, or absence from public view, with statements read by proxies using his image. Reza Pahlavi's 8.5% reflects exiled opposition hopes for transition amid war pressures, while Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf's 7% stems from his parliamentary leadership and rumored backchannel diplomacy positioning him in the power vacuum. Odds hold firm absent confirmed upheaval or diplomatic breakthroughs.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Hacim
$6,594,165
Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.

Sıkça Sorulan Sorular

"İran lideri 2026 'nın sonu mu?", yatırımcıların ne olacağına inandıklarına göre hisse alıp sattığı 32 olası sonuçlu Polymarket'teki bir tahmin piyasasıdır. Mevcut lider sonuç 68% ile "Mojtaba Khamenei", ardından 9% ile "Reza Pahlavi" gelmektedir. Fiyatlar gerçek zamanlı kitle kaynaklı olasılıkları yansıtır. Örneğin, 68¢ fiyatlı bir hisse, piyasanın toplu olarak o sonuca 68% olasılık atadığı anlamına gelir. Bu oranlar, yatırımcılar yeni gelişmelere ve bilgilere tepki verdikçe sürekli değişir. Doğru sonuçtaki hisseler piyasa çözümlemesinde her biri 1$ karşılığında tahsil edilebilir.

Bugün itibarıyla "İran lideri 2026 'nın sonu mu?" toplam $6.6 million işlem hacmi oluşturmuştur piyasa Mar 1, 2026 tarihinde açıldığından beri. Bu düzeyde işlem aktivitesi Polymarket topluluğundan güçlü katılımı yansıtır ve mevcut oranların derin bir piyasa katılımcıları havuzu tarafından bilgilendirilmesini sağlar. Bu sayfada canlı fiyat hareketlerini takip edebilir ve herhangi bir sonuç üzerinde doğrudan işlem yapabilirsiniz.

"İran lideri 2026 'nın sonu mu?" üzerinde işlem yapmak için bu sayfada listelenen 32 mevcut sonuca göz atın. Her sonuç, piyasanın ima edilen olasılığını temsil eden bir güncel fiyat gösterir. Pozisyon almak için en olası olduğuna inandığınız sonucu seçin, lehine işlem yapmak için "Evet" veya aleyhine işlem yapmak için "Hayır" seçin, miktarınızı girin ve "İşlem Yap"a tıklayın. Piyasa çözümlendiğinde seçtiğiniz sonuç doğruysa, "Evet" hisseleriniz her biri 1$ öder. Yanlışsa 0$ öderler. Ayrıca kâr kilitlemek veya zararı kesmek isterseniz çözümlemeden önce istediğiniz zaman hisselerinizi satabilirsiniz.

"İran lideri 2026 'nın sonu mu?" için mevcut favori 68% ile "Mojtaba Khamenei"dir, yani piyasa bu sonuca 68% olasılık atamaktadır. En yakın sonuç 9% ile "Reza Pahlavi"dir. Bu oranlar yatırımcılar hisse alıp sattıkça gerçek zamanlı güncellenir, bu nedenle en olası olanın en son kolektif görüşünü yansıtır. Yeni bilgiler ortaya çıktıkça oranların nasıl değiştiğini takip etmek için sık sık kontrol edin veya bu sayfayı yer imlerine ekleyin.

"İran lideri 2026 'nın sonu mu?" için çözümleme kuralları, her sonucun kazanan olarak ilan edilmesi için tam olarak ne olması gerektiğini tanımlar — sonucu belirlemek için kullanılan resmi veri kaynakları dahil. Bu sayfadaki yorumların üzerindeki "Kurallar" bölümünde tam çözümleme kriterlerini inceleyebilirsiniz. İşlem yapmadan önce kuralları dikkatli bir şekilde okumanızı öneririz, çünkü bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğini yöneten kesin koşulları, istisnai durumları ve kaynakları belirtir.