Trader consensus favors CDU with 56.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, driven by its consistent lead in recent polls averaging 21-22%—ahead of AfD and SPD tied at 17%, Grüne and Die Linke at 15%. The latest INSA survey (April 7-14) confirms this positioning amid a fragmented field, where no party nears a majority and coalitions will be essential. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner’s CDU-SPD black-red coalition lacks projected support, but CDU benefits from incumbency stability despite national SPD woes. Minor shifts, like AfD's slight gains, have not eroded the lead, though multipolar competition keeps outcomes uncertain.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiBerlin Eyalet Seçimlerinin Kazananı
Berlin Eyalet Seçimlerinin Kazananı
CDU 56%
Grüne 15.3%
Linke 12%
AfD 9.9%
$2,573,888 Hac.
$2,573,888 Hac.
20 Eyl 2026
CDU
56%
Grüne
15%
Linke
12%
AfD
10%
SPD
7%
BSW
1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 56%
Grüne 15.3%
Linke 12%
AfD 9.9%
$2,573,888 Hac.
$2,573,888 Hac.
20 Eyl 2026
CDU
$15,416 Hac.
56%
Grüne
$27,984 Hac.
15%
Linke
$11,660 Hac.
12%
AfD
$2,187,507 Hac.
10%
SPD
$287,440 Hac.
7%
BSW
$26,369 Hac.
1%
FDP
$10,379 Hac.
<1%
FW
$7,131 Hac.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU with 56.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, driven by its consistent lead in recent polls averaging 21-22%—ahead of AfD and SPD tied at 17%, Grüne and Die Linke at 15%. The latest INSA survey (April 7-14) confirms this positioning amid a fragmented field, where no party nears a majority and coalitions will be essential. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner’s CDU-SPD black-red coalition lacks projected support, but CDU benefits from incumbency stability despite national SPD woes. Minor shifts, like AfD's slight gains, have not eroded the lead, though multipolar competition keeps outcomes uncertain.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Hacim
$2,573,888Bitiş Tarihi
20 Eyl 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU with 56.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, driven by its consistent lead in recent polls averaging 21-22%—ahead of AfD and SPD tied at 17%, Grüne and Die Linke at 15%. The latest INSA survey (April 7-14) confirms this positioning amid a fragmented field, where no party nears a majority and coalitions will be essential. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner’s CDU-SPD black-red coalition lacks projected support, but CDU benefits from incumbency stability despite national SPD woes. Minor shifts, like AfD's slight gains, have not eroded the lead, though multipolar competition keeps outcomes uncertain.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Hacim
$2,573,888Bitiş Tarihi
20 Eyl 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors CDU with 56.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, driven by its consistent lead in recent polls averaging 21-22%—ahead of AfD and SPD tied at 17%, Grüne and Die Linke at 15%. The latest INSA survey (April 7-14) confirms this positioning amid a fragmented field, where no party nears a majority and coalitions will be essential. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner’s CDU-SPD black-red coalition lacks projected support, but CDU benefits from incumbency stability despite national SPD woes. Minor shifts, like AfD's slight gains, have not eroded the lead, though multipolar competition keeps outcomes uncertain.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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