Incumbent Mayor Ras Baraka's commanding 96% implied probability in the Polymarket reflects his strong incumbency advantage in Newark's low-turnout, non-partisan municipal election on May 12, bolstered by a weak field of minor challengers like Asha Coates-Hamlet and Douglas Davis. Recent developments, including the New Jersey Working Families Party endorsement on April 21 citing record-low crime, 23,000 lead service lines replaced, and 57% homelessness reduction, alongside his allies' school board sweep last week, have solidified trader consensus on his path to a fourth term. While corruption allegations from a former housing commissioner persist, they have failed to erode support. Scenarios like a late-breaking scandal, surged opposition turnout, or disputed vote counts could still challenge the outcome.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateNewark Mayoral Election
Newark Mayoral Election
Ras Baraka 96%
Douglas Davis 1.4%
Asha Coates-Hamlet 1.3%
Noble Milton <1%
$18,636 Vol.
$18,636 Vol.
Ras Baraka
96%
Douglas Davis
1%
Asha Coates-Hamlet
1%
Noble Milton
<1%
Nasheedah Singleton
<1%
Sheila Montague
<1%
Jhamar Youngblood
<1%
Tanisha Garner
<1%
Debra Salters
<1%
Louis Shockley
<1%
Ras Baraka 96%
Douglas Davis 1.4%
Asha Coates-Hamlet 1.3%
Noble Milton <1%
$18,636 Vol.
$18,636 Vol.
Ras Baraka
96%
Douglas Davis
1%
Asha Coates-Hamlet
1%
Noble Milton
<1%
Nasheedah Singleton
<1%
Sheila Montague
<1%
Jhamar Youngblood
<1%
Tanisha Garner
<1%
Debra Salters
<1%
Louis Shockley
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Newark as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Newark.
Binuksan ang Market: Mar 10, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Newark as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Newark.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Mayor Ras Baraka's commanding 96% implied probability in the Polymarket reflects his strong incumbency advantage in Newark's low-turnout, non-partisan municipal election on May 12, bolstered by a weak field of minor challengers like Asha Coates-Hamlet and Douglas Davis. Recent developments, including the New Jersey Working Families Party endorsement on April 21 citing record-low crime, 23,000 lead service lines replaced, and 57% homelessness reduction, alongside his allies' school board sweep last week, have solidified trader consensus on his path to a fourth term. While corruption allegations from a former housing commissioner persist, they have failed to erode support. Scenarios like a late-breaking scandal, surged opposition turnout, or disputed vote counts could still challenge the outcome.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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