Incumbent Karen Bass finished the June 2 primary with roughly 34 percent of the vote against Nithya Raman at 29 percent and Spencer Pratt at 25.5 percent, producing a margin just over five points once nearly all ballots were tallied. High undecided shares in late-spring surveys, a fragmented field of more than a dozen candidates, and Bass’s incumbency advantage contributed to her plurality while preventing any outright majority. Traders assign overwhelming probability to the 5–10 percent band because the final certified tally aligns with that range and remaining provisional or mail ballots are too few to shift the gap materially. A recount or discovery of widespread tabulation errors could still alter the precise margin, though such developments remain improbable at this stage.