Recent global surface temperature observations, including NOAA data placing April 2026 at 1.12°C above the 20th-century average, combined with an ongoing long-term warming trend, underpin trader consensus around the 1.10–1.14°C range for May. The equatorial Pacific remains in ENSO-neutral conditions but shows subsurface warming and a developing El Niño, with NOAA assigning an 82% probability of emergence during May–July; this transition typically amplifies anomalies later in the year rather than immediately. Model ensembles indicate moderate strengthening through summer, though spring variability and measurement uncertainties keep the distribution broad, with lower-probability outcomes reflecting potential for cooler or stronger deviations based on final monthly data.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 65%
<1.10ºC 18%
1.15–1.19ºC 11%
1.20–1.24ºC 3.5%
$73,128 Vol.
$73,128 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
18%
1.10–1.14ºC
65%
1.15–1.19ºC
11%
1.20–1.24ºC
3%
1.25–1.29ºC
2%
>1.29ºC
1%
1.10–1.14ºC 65%
<1.10ºC 18%
1.15–1.19ºC 11%
1.20–1.24ºC 3.5%
$73,128 Vol.
$73,128 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$27,296 Vol.
18%
1.10–1.14ºC
$7,111 Vol.
65%
1.15–1.19ºC
$12,331 Vol.
11%
1.20–1.24ºC
$9,670 Vol.
3%
1.25–1.29ºC
$7,574 Vol.
2%
>1.29ºC
$9,145 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent global surface temperature observations, including NOAA data placing April 2026 at 1.12°C above the 20th-century average, combined with an ongoing long-term warming trend, underpin trader consensus around the 1.10–1.14°C range for May. The equatorial Pacific remains in ENSO-neutral conditions but shows subsurface warming and a developing El Niño, with NOAA assigning an 82% probability of emergence during May–July; this transition typically amplifies anomalies later in the year rather than immediately. Model ensembles indicate moderate strengthening through summer, though spring variability and measurement uncertainties keep the distribution broad, with lower-probability outcomes reflecting potential for cooler or stronger deviations based on final monthly data.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Binuksan ang Market: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$73,128Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 10, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent global surface temperature observations, including NOAA data placing April 2026 at 1.12°C above the 20th-century average, combined with an ongoing long-term warming trend, underpin trader consensus around the 1.10–1.14°C range for May. The equatorial Pacific remains in ENSO-neutral conditions but shows subsurface warming and a developing El Niño, with NOAA assigning an 82% probability of emergence during May–July; this transition typically amplifies anomalies later in the year rather than immediately. Model ensembles indicate moderate strengthening through summer, though spring variability and measurement uncertainties keep the distribution broad, with lower-probability outcomes reflecting potential for cooler or stronger deviations based on final monthly data.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$73,128Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 10, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent global surface temperature observations, including NOAA data placing April 2026 at 1.12°C above the 20th-century average, combined with an ongoing long-term warming trend, underpin trader consensus around the 1.10–1.14°C range for May. The equatorial Pacific remains in ENSO-neutral conditions but shows subsurface warming and a developing El Niño, with NOAA assigning an 82% probability of emergence during May–July; this transition typically amplifies anomalies later in the year rather than immediately. Model ensembles indicate moderate strengthening through summer, though spring variability and measurement uncertainties keep the distribution broad, with lower-probability outcomes reflecting potential for cooler or stronger deviations based on final monthly data.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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