Jack Doherty’s recent misdemeanor domestic battery arrest in Fort Lauderdale on September 4, 2026, after a reported physical dispute with no injuries to the alleged victim, underpins the market’s overwhelming 93.3% implied probability of no prison time. Florida law treats the charge as a first-degree misdemeanor carrying up to one year in county jail, yet first-time cases with minimal harm frequently resolve via plea, diversion, or probation rather than incarceration. Doherty’s prior 2025 drug possession matter ended in a deferred prosecution program without conviction, reinforcing trader expectations of similar leniency. An upset would require charge escalation, a surprising guilty verdict with jail time, or new felony counts surfacing before resolution.