Incumbent Republican Carlos Giménez holds a commanding position in Florida’s 28th Congressional District due to the area’s consistent Republican tilt, including Donald Trump’s 25-point margin there in 2024, combined with Giménez’s strong prior performance and substantial cash reserves. The race features Democrat Phil Ehr, a retired Navy commander, and independent Eddy Rojas, but primary cancellations left the general election matchup set for November 3. Ehr has secured endorsements from national security groups and conducted district visibility events, yet independent ratings classify the contest as safe or solid Republican. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors, with realistic shifts possible only from late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or significant national political realignment before Election Day.