Mary Peltola maintains a narrow first-choice lead over incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska’s November 3 Senate election, with roughly 49% to 47% as counting continues past 85% of expected ballots. This positioning, combined with Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system, drives the market’s strong consensus for Peltola. Minor-candidate votes—primarily from Republican-leaning contenders—redistribute in later rounds, and recent tallies show her securing a majority after eliminations. Ongoing absentee ballot processing through November 18 and final certification on November 25 remain key milestones. A reversal would require remaining ballots to shift the first-choice margin dramatically or produce unexpected redistribution patterns, though both appear unlikely based on current trends.