Incumbent Republican María Elvira Salazar holds a fundraising edge and benefits from name recognition in Florida’s 27th District, supporting her 63% implied probability on Polymarket. The race has tightened from prior safe-Republican status after internal polling showed a statistical tie at 45% apiece in late August and Cook Political Report shifted its rating to Lean Republican in September. Key factors include backlash among Hispanic voters over federal immigration enforcement, Salazar’s public break with some Trump administration policies, and the district’s heavy Latino composition in Miami-Dade. Democrat Eliott Rodriguez, a longtime local news anchor who won his primary, has gained visibility on cost-of-living and immigration issues ahead of the November 3 general election.