**Recent polling and the October 5 snap election call have positioned the Partido Popular (PP) as the clear frontrunner for the November 29, 2026, general election.** Multiple surveys from late September and early October show PP at 31–34% vote intention, ahead of PSOE at 25–27%, with Vox near 18%. Seat projections typically award PP the largest bloc (around 130–145 seats), and PP plus Vox combinations frequently exceed the 176-seat majority threshold. Sánchez’s decision to dissolve parliament followed legislative setbacks on housing measures and amid broader challenges for the left-wing bloc, including fragmentation between PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos. Traders’ strong preference for PP (84.5% implied probability) reflects this sustained polling lead and the right-wing parties’ combined strength, while PSOE’s lower odds align with its narrower path to victory in current estimates. Minor parties show little consensus in the market, consistent with their limited projected representation.