Elevated WTI crude futures near $103 per barrel as of May 19, 2026, underpin the 72% market-implied probability that June settlement exceeds $84. Persistent supply disruptions from Middle East tensions, including constrained flows through the Strait of Hormuz, have driven sharp inventory draws and a risk premium that offsets broader demand concerns. Recent U.S. policy signals on Iran and ongoing OPEC+ production discipline have reinforced trader consensus for sustained tightness through the quarter. Key upcoming catalysts include the EIA’s next Short-Term Energy Outlook and any de-escalation progress that could ease shipping constraints before month-end. The 17.5% odds for the $77–$84 bucket reflect limited room for a rapid unwind absent major supply relief.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWhat will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?
>$84 72%
$77-$84 18%
$70-$77 8.0%
$63-$70 2.4%
$165,065 Vol.
$165,065 Vol.
<$42
1%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
1%
$63-$70
2%
$70-$77
8%
$77-$84
18%
>$84
72%
>$84 72%
$77-$84 18%
$70-$77 8.0%
$63-$70 2.4%
$165,065 Vol.
$165,065 Vol.
<$42
1%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
1%
$63-$70
2%
$70-$77
8%
$77-$84
18%
>$84
72%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated WTI crude futures near $103 per barrel as of May 19, 2026, underpin the 72% market-implied probability that June settlement exceeds $84. Persistent supply disruptions from Middle East tensions, including constrained flows through the Strait of Hormuz, have driven sharp inventory draws and a risk premium that offsets broader demand concerns. Recent U.S. policy signals on Iran and ongoing OPEC+ production discipline have reinforced trader consensus for sustained tightness through the quarter. Key upcoming catalysts include the EIA’s next Short-Term Energy Outlook and any de-escalation progress that could ease shipping constraints before month-end. The 17.5% odds for the $77–$84 bucket reflect limited room for a rapid unwind absent major supply relief.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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