Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of power through record military and party purges has entrenched loyalty within the People’s Liberation Army and senior CCP ranks, driving trader consensus toward a low probability of any coup attempt before 2027. Ongoing anti-corruption investigations have removed multiple Central Military Commission members and dozens of generals since 2022, including high-profile figures in 2025-2026, while reinforcing party discipline and surveillance mechanisms that limit organized dissent. These structural controls, combined with the absence of credible reports of factional mobilization, underpin the 96.5% implied probability for no attempt. Shifts remain possible only through unforeseen events such as a severe leadership health crisis or rapid reversal of purge dynamics that unexpectedly unites opposition, though current evidence shows continued tightening of authority ahead of the 2027 party congress.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update4% tsansa
$155,515 Vol.
$155,515 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% tsansa
$155,515 Vol.
$155,515 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of power through record military and party purges has entrenched loyalty within the People’s Liberation Army and senior CCP ranks, driving trader consensus toward a low probability of any coup attempt before 2027. Ongoing anti-corruption investigations have removed multiple Central Military Commission members and dozens of generals since 2022, including high-profile figures in 2025-2026, while reinforcing party discipline and surveillance mechanisms that limit organized dissent. These structural controls, combined with the absence of credible reports of factional mobilization, underpin the 96.5% implied probability for no attempt. Shifts remain possible only through unforeseen events such as a severe leadership health crisis or rapid reversal of purge dynamics that unexpectedly unites opposition, though current evidence shows continued tightening of authority ahead of the 2027 party congress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$155,515Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of power through record military and party purges has entrenched loyalty within the People’s Liberation Army and senior CCP ranks, driving trader consensus toward a low probability of any coup attempt before 2027. Ongoing anti-corruption investigations have removed multiple Central Military Commission members and dozens of generals since 2022, including high-profile figures in 2025-2026, while reinforcing party discipline and surveillance mechanisms that limit organized dissent. These structural controls, combined with the absence of credible reports of factional mobilization, underpin the 96.5% implied probability for no attempt. Shifts remain possible only through unforeseen events such as a severe leadership health crisis or rapid reversal of purge dynamics that unexpectedly unites opposition, though current evidence shows continued tightening of authority ahead of the 2027 party congress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$155,515Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of power through record military and party purges has entrenched loyalty within the People’s Liberation Army and senior CCP ranks, driving trader consensus toward a low probability of any coup attempt before 2027. Ongoing anti-corruption investigations have removed multiple Central Military Commission members and dozens of generals since 2022, including high-profile figures in 2025-2026, while reinforcing party discipline and surveillance mechanisms that limit organized dissent. These structural controls, combined with the absence of credible reports of factional mobilization, underpin the 96.5% implied probability for no attempt. Shifts remain possible only through unforeseen events such as a severe leadership health crisis or rapid reversal of purge dynamics that unexpectedly unites opposition, though current evidence shows continued tightening of authority ahead of the 2027 party congress.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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