Copernicus Climate Change Service's ERA5 reanalysis confirms April 2026 as the joint third-warmest April on record, with a global-mean surface air temperature of 14.89°C—0.52°C above the 1991–2020 average and 1.43°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline—released in early May 2026. This observational data, reflecting sustained warming from lingering El Niño influences and high sea surface temperatures (second-highest outside polar regions), aligns with trader consensus implying a NOAA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index anomaly of approximately 1.17°C versus the 1901–2000 baseline, driving the 96.3% probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC bin. NOAA's official report, due around May 10, could prompt minor shifts via data adjustments for stations or shipping logs, though historical ERA5-NOAA correlations and low uncertainty in preliminary figures make significant deviations unlikely.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateApril 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 96.3%
1.20–1.24ºC 3.0%
1.10–1.14ºC <1%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
$350,816 Vol.
$350,816 Vol.
May 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
1%
1.15–1.19ºC
96%
1.20–1.24ºC
3%
1.25–1.29ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC 96.3%
1.20–1.24ºC 3.0%
1.10–1.14ºC <1%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
$350,816 Vol.
$350,816 Vol.
May 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$60,334 Vol.
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$62,525 Vol.
1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$47,907 Vol.
96%
1.20–1.24ºC
$69,484 Vol.
3%
1.25–1.29ºC
$62,645 Vol.
<1%
>1.29ºC
$47,922 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Copernicus Climate Change Service's ERA5 reanalysis confirms April 2026 as the joint third-warmest April on record, with a global-mean surface air temperature of 14.89°C—0.52°C above the 1991–2020 average and 1.43°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline—released in early May 2026. This observational data, reflecting sustained warming from lingering El Niño influences and high sea surface temperatures (second-highest outside polar regions), aligns with trader consensus implying a NOAA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index anomaly of approximately 1.17°C versus the 1901–2000 baseline, driving the 96.3% probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC bin. NOAA's official report, due around May 10, could prompt minor shifts via data adjustments for stations or shipping logs, though historical ERA5-NOAA correlations and low uncertainty in preliminary figures make significant deviations unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Binuksan ang Market: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$350,816Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 10, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Copernicus Climate Change Service's ERA5 reanalysis confirms April 2026 as the joint third-warmest April on record, with a global-mean surface air temperature of 14.89°C—0.52°C above the 1991–2020 average and 1.43°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline—released in early May 2026. This observational data, reflecting sustained warming from lingering El Niño influences and high sea surface temperatures (second-highest outside polar regions), aligns with trader consensus implying a NOAA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index anomaly of approximately 1.17°C versus the 1901–2000 baseline, driving the 96.3% probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC bin. NOAA's official report, due around May 10, could prompt minor shifts via data adjustments for stations or shipping logs, though historical ERA5-NOAA correlations and low uncertainty in preliminary figures make significant deviations unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$350,816Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 10, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Copernicus Climate Change Service's ERA5 reanalysis confirms April 2026 as the joint third-warmest April on record, with a global-mean surface air temperature of 14.89°C—0.52°C above the 1991–2020 average and 1.43°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline—released in early May 2026. This observational data, reflecting sustained warming from lingering El Niño influences and high sea surface temperatures (second-highest outside polar regions), aligns with trader consensus implying a NOAA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index anomaly of approximately 1.17°C versus the 1901–2000 baseline, driving the 96.3% probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC bin. NOAA's official report, due around May 10, could prompt minor shifts via data adjustments for stations or shipping logs, though historical ERA5-NOAA correlations and low uncertainty in preliminary figures make significant deviations unlikely.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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