Recent USDA Ag in Drought data for the week ending October 6, 2026, place roughly 22-23% of U.S. hog inventory in moderate or worse drought (D1+), aligning with the market's near-certain 15-24% outcome. This reflects U.S. Drought Monitor conditions across major production states in the Midwest and Plains, where recent precipitation from Hurricane Polo remnants eased severe drought in parts of the Southern Plains while dry spells persisted elsewhere. National drought coverage stands near 46%, yet hog-specific exposure remains moderate due to the geographic distribution of operations. Upcoming weekly monitor updates and any new model runs showing altered precipitation patterns could shift readings outside this band if conditions improve or intensify rapidly in core hog regions.