Trader consensus on a low likelihood of resignation before 2027 stems from the historical infrequency of U.S. presidents leaving office early outside of health crises or impeachment threats, combined with the incumbent's demonstrated political resilience and institutional position entering the second half of the term. No major legislative setbacks, cabinet vacancies, or verified health disclosures have emerged to shift this assessment. The wisdom of crowds in this market incorporates base rates for second-term continuity and the absence of near-term catalysts such as confirmation battles or electoral deadlines. Realistic scenarios that could still alter probabilities include sudden medical developments, unforeseen legal resolutions, or significant shifts in congressional support that increase pressure on the executive.