Iran’s recent claims of strikes on navigation infrastructure at Oman’s Didamar Island in the Strait of Hormuz, reported around November 8–10, 2026, form the central driver behind elevated trader probabilities in this market. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps asserted the action targeted radar, communications, and lighthouse systems allegedly aiding unauthorized vessel transit amid the broader Hormuz crisis and U.S. naval operations. This fits within a documented pattern of Iranian drone and missile activity directed at Omani ports and coastal sites since March 2026, including facilities at Duqm, Salalah, and Sohar used by external forces. Ongoing diplomatic exchanges between Tehran and Muscat on maritime corridors and mine clearance have not halted the incidents, while tanker fires and mine reports near Omani waters sustain escalation risks. Resolution hinges on verified Iranian-originated strikes meeting the market’s criteria for qualifying military action by the specified deadline.