The market resolves based on whether listed Democratic candidates in 2026 statewide races receive a lower certified vote share than Kamala Harris achieved in their states during the 2024 presidential election. Trader focus centers on candidates facing headwinds from personal controversies or polling shortfalls, including Troy Jackson in Maine and Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, where recent surveys show them trailing expectations relative to Harris's prior results. Broader Democratic leads in the generic ballot and House forecasts have not uniformly lifted all nominees, particularly in states with lingering scandals or weaker turnout dynamics. The November 3 election date leaves limited time for shifts from late campaign events or turnout patterns.