Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 31.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026—the leading outcome amid closely contested odds—with $7,000-$7,500 at 23%, reflecting uncertainty from March's 5% index decline due to escalating Iran tensions, surging oil prices, and a 1.1% monthly CPI spike signaling sticky inflation at 2.8% PCE. Despite a robust Q1 earnings start and April rebound to around 7,100, positioning near all-time highs, persistent Fed pause on rate cuts, steady 4.3% unemployment, and PE compression from downward EPS revisions (e.g., Bank of America at 7,100 target) elevate crash risks versus bullish Wall Street consensus of 7,200-7,600. Key differentiators include inflation trajectory and geopolitical resolution, with April CPI due May 12 ahead of FOMC.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWhat will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
<$6,000 32%
$7,000-$7,500 23%
$6,500-$7,000 14%
>$8,000 12%
$19,269 ปริมาณ
$19,269 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
32%
$6,000-$6,500
17%
$6,500-$7,000
14%
$7,000-$7,500
23%
$7,500-$8,000
12%
>$8,000
12%
<$6,000 32%
$7,000-$7,500 23%
$6,500-$7,000 14%
>$8,000 12%
$19,269 ปริมาณ
$19,269 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
$11,578 ปริมาณ
32%
$6,000-$6,500
$1,351 ปริมาณ
17%
$6,500-$7,000
$1,969 ปริมาณ
14%
$7,000-$7,500
$923 ปริมาณ
23%
$7,500-$8,000
$1,654 ปริมาณ
12%
>$8,000
$1,794 ปริมาณ
12%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 31.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026—the leading outcome amid closely contested odds—with $7,000-$7,500 at 23%, reflecting uncertainty from March's 5% index decline due to escalating Iran tensions, surging oil prices, and a 1.1% monthly CPI spike signaling sticky inflation at 2.8% PCE. Despite a robust Q1 earnings start and April rebound to around 7,100, positioning near all-time highs, persistent Fed pause on rate cuts, steady 4.3% unemployment, and PE compression from downward EPS revisions (e.g., Bank of America at 7,100 target) elevate crash risks versus bullish Wall Street consensus of 7,200-7,600. Key differentiators include inflation trajectory and geopolitical resolution, with April CPI due May 12 ahead of FOMC.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$19,269วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 31.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026—the leading outcome amid closely contested odds—with $7,000-$7,500 at 23%, reflecting uncertainty from March's 5% index decline due to escalating Iran tensions, surging oil prices, and a 1.1% monthly CPI spike signaling sticky inflation at 2.8% PCE. Despite a robust Q1 earnings start and April rebound to around 7,100, positioning near all-time highs, persistent Fed pause on rate cuts, steady 4.3% unemployment, and PE compression from downward EPS revisions (e.g., Bank of America at 7,100 target) elevate crash risks versus bullish Wall Street consensus of 7,200-7,600. Key differentiators include inflation trajectory and geopolitical resolution, with April CPI due May 12 ahead of FOMC.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$19,269วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 31.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026—the leading outcome amid closely contested odds—with $7,000-$7,500 at 23%, reflecting uncertainty from March's 5% index decline due to escalating Iran tensions, surging oil prices, and a 1.1% monthly CPI spike signaling sticky inflation at 2.8% PCE. Despite a robust Q1 earnings start and April rebound to around 7,100, positioning near all-time highs, persistent Fed pause on rate cuts, steady 4.3% unemployment, and PE compression from downward EPS revisions (e.g., Bank of America at 7,100 target) elevate crash risks versus bullish Wall Street consensus of 7,200-7,600. Key differentiators include inflation trajectory and geopolitical resolution, with April CPI due May 12 ahead of FOMC.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย