A strong El Niño event, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperatures near +2.8°C in September 2026, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, underpins trader consensus around the 1.30–1.34°C bin for the month's global mean surface temperature anomaly relative to pre-industrial levels. Official analyses show August 2026 tied as the warmest month on record at roughly 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 baseline in ERA5 data, yet early September observations have run cooler than some model expectations, narrowing the range of likely outcomes. Model ensembles from ECMWF and others indicate continued elevated probabilities for above-normal temperatures globally, though ENSO forecasts suggest peak influence may extend into late 2026 and 2027. Resolution will hinge on final monthly aggregates from agencies such as NASA GISS, NOAA, and Copernicus, with any revisions to observational baselines or short-term variability capable of shifting implied probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วSeptember 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.30–1.34ºC 47%
<1.30ºC 38%
1.35–1.39ºC 37%
1.40–1.44ºC 31%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
38%
1.30–1.34ºC
47%
1.35–1.39ºC
37%
1.40–1.44ºC
31%
1.45–1.49ºC
30%
>1.49ºC
25%
1.30–1.34ºC 47%
<1.30ºC 38%
1.35–1.39ºC 37%
1.40–1.44ºC 31%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
$0 ปริมาณ
38%
1.30–1.34ºC
$0 ปริมาณ
47%
1.35–1.39ºC
$0 ปริมาณ
37%
1.40–1.44ºC
$0 ปริมาณ
31%
1.45–1.49ºC
$74 ปริมาณ
30%
>1.49ºC
$80 ปริมาณ
25%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strong El Niño event, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperatures near +2.8°C in September 2026, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, underpins trader consensus around the 1.30–1.34°C bin for the month's global mean surface temperature anomaly relative to pre-industrial levels. Official analyses show August 2026 tied as the warmest month on record at roughly 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 baseline in ERA5 data, yet early September observations have run cooler than some model expectations, narrowing the range of likely outcomes. Model ensembles from ECMWF and others indicate continued elevated probabilities for above-normal temperatures globally, though ENSO forecasts suggest peak influence may extend into late 2026 and 2027. Resolution will hinge on final monthly aggregates from agencies such as NASA GISS, NOAA, and Copernicus, with any revisions to observational baselines or short-term variability capable of shifting implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$154วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 10, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strong El Niño event, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperatures near +2.8°C in September 2026, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, underpins trader consensus around the 1.30–1.34°C bin for the month's global mean surface temperature anomaly relative to pre-industrial levels. Official analyses show August 2026 tied as the warmest month on record at roughly 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 baseline in ERA5 data, yet early September observations have run cooler than some model expectations, narrowing the range of likely outcomes. Model ensembles from ECMWF and others indicate continued elevated probabilities for above-normal temperatures globally, though ENSO forecasts suggest peak influence may extend into late 2026 and 2027. Resolution will hinge on final monthly aggregates from agencies such as NASA GISS, NOAA, and Copernicus, with any revisions to observational baselines or short-term variability capable of shifting implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$154วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 10, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...A strong El Niño event, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperatures near +2.8°C in September 2026, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, underpins trader consensus around the 1.30–1.34°C bin for the month's global mean surface temperature anomaly relative to pre-industrial levels. Official analyses show August 2026 tied as the warmest month on record at roughly 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 baseline in ERA5 data, yet early September observations have run cooler than some model expectations, narrowing the range of likely outcomes. Model ensembles from ECMWF and others indicate continued elevated probabilities for above-normal temperatures globally, though ENSO forecasts suggest peak influence may extend into late 2026 and 2027. Resolution will hinge on final monthly aggregates from agencies such as NASA GISS, NOAA, and Copernicus, with any revisions to observational baselines or short-term variability capable of shifting implied probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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