Nashville SC’s record-setting regular season, including clinching the Supporters’ Shield with 71 points and a +43 goal difference through 32 matches, has established the club as the clear regular-season leader and pushed its implied probability to 22.1%. Vancouver Whitecaps FC’s strong Western Conference finish and Inter Miami CF’s attacking depth behind Lionel Messi and Luis Suárez keep those sides within striking distance at 15% and 16%. The narrow spread among the top contenders reflects the single-elimination playoff format, where recent form, home advantage, and potential upsets can quickly reshape outcomes across a deep field that includes FC Dallas, St. Louis City SC, and Los Angeles FC.