Lionel Messi's commanding 80% implied probability reflects his league-leading 20-plus goals and 12-plus assists through late September, powering Inter Miami while positioning him for a potential historic three-peat as MLS MVP. Power rankings from credible outlets consistently place the Inter Miami forward atop the race due to his unmatched game-changing ability and per-match impact, even as Nashville SC leads the Supporters' Shield chase. Petar Musa's 11% share stems from his 18-goal, five-assist output for FC Dallas and consistent starting role, though he trails significantly in overall contributions. Evander, Denis Bouanga, and others like Sam Surridge sit further back on the strength of solid goal tallies and team contexts but lack Messi's volume or narrative momentum heading into the final regular-season weeks.