Recent short resolutions of critical GitHub incidents, primarily tied to Copilot cloud services and upstream model provider issues, have driven the strong market consensus around the 3-6 hour range. Multiple October events, including disruptions on October 28 and 29 lasting roughly 1-2.5 hours and earlier critical cases under 4 hours, reflect improved infrastructure scaling and rapid mitigation of AI-related load spikes. With only one day left in the month and no major ongoing outages reported on the official status page, traders see little room for escalation into longer durations. Historical patterns of quick recoveries further reinforce this positioning over extended 6-12 or 12+ hour scenarios.