Recent May 2026 global surface temperatures ranked second-highest on record at 1.07 °C above the 20th-century average per NOAA data, reflecting the long-term anthropogenic warming trend. An emerging El Niño, with equatorial Pacific sea-surface anomalies rising above +0.5 °C and forecasts assigning 80–98 % probability of persistence through summer and into winter 2026–27, provides additional forcing that typically elevates global means by 0.1–0.2 °C. These factors align with the market-implied 70.5 % concentration on the 1.15–1.19 °C bin, consistent with 2025 annual values near 1.19 °C relative to 1951–1980 baselines and the absence of strong La Niña cooling. June-specific model runs and partial-month observations remain within historical variability ranges for this time of year, supporting limited probability mass in adjacent bins while highlighting the sensitivity of final June values to short-term atmospheric patterns.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 71%
1.10–1.14ºC 19%
1.20–1.24ºC 9%
1.25–1.29ºC 2.4%
$14,425 ปริมาณ
$14,425 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2026
<1.10ºC
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
19%
1.15–1.19ºC
71%
1.20–1.24ºC
9%
1.25–1.29ºC
2%
>1.29ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC 71%
1.10–1.14ºC 19%
1.20–1.24ºC 9%
1.25–1.29ºC 2.4%
$14,425 ปริมาณ
$14,425 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2026
<1.10ºC
$511 ปริมาณ
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
$6,227 ปริมาณ
19%
1.15–1.19ºC
$481 ปริมาณ
71%
1.20–1.24ºC
$3,845 ปริมาณ
9%
1.25–1.29ºC
$1,749 ปริมาณ
2%
>1.29ºC
$1,612 ปริมาณ
2%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent May 2026 global surface temperatures ranked second-highest on record at 1.07 °C above the 20th-century average per NOAA data, reflecting the long-term anthropogenic warming trend. An emerging El Niño, with equatorial Pacific sea-surface anomalies rising above +0.5 °C and forecasts assigning 80–98 % probability of persistence through summer and into winter 2026–27, provides additional forcing that typically elevates global means by 0.1–0.2 °C. These factors align with the market-implied 70.5 % concentration on the 1.15–1.19 °C bin, consistent with 2025 annual values near 1.19 °C relative to 1951–1980 baselines and the absence of strong La Niña cooling. June-specific model runs and partial-month observations remain within historical variability ranges for this time of year, supporting limited probability mass in adjacent bins while highlighting the sensitivity of final June values to short-term atmospheric patterns.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$14,425วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent May 2026 global surface temperatures ranked second-highest on record at 1.07 °C above the 20th-century average per NOAA data, reflecting the long-term anthropogenic warming trend. An emerging El Niño, with equatorial Pacific sea-surface anomalies rising above +0.5 °C and forecasts assigning 80–98 % probability of persistence through summer and into winter 2026–27, provides additional forcing that typically elevates global means by 0.1–0.2 °C. These factors align with the market-implied 70.5 % concentration on the 1.15–1.19 °C bin, consistent with 2025 annual values near 1.19 °C relative to 1951–1980 baselines and the absence of strong La Niña cooling. June-specific model runs and partial-month observations remain within historical variability ranges for this time of year, supporting limited probability mass in adjacent bins while highlighting the sensitivity of final June values to short-term atmospheric patterns.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$14,425วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent May 2026 global surface temperatures ranked second-highest on record at 1.07 °C above the 20th-century average per NOAA data, reflecting the long-term anthropogenic warming trend. An emerging El Niño, with equatorial Pacific sea-surface anomalies rising above +0.5 °C and forecasts assigning 80–98 % probability of persistence through summer and into winter 2026–27, provides additional forcing that typically elevates global means by 0.1–0.2 °C. These factors align with the market-implied 70.5 % concentration on the 1.15–1.19 °C bin, consistent with 2025 annual values near 1.19 °C relative to 1951–1980 baselines and the absence of strong La Niña cooling. June-specific model runs and partial-month observations remain within historical variability ranges for this time of year, supporting limited probability mass in adjacent bins while highlighting the sensitivity of final June values to short-term atmospheric patterns.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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