Recent September ISM Services PMI data at 54.9, slightly below consensus, highlighted a pullback in business activity to 56.5 and new orders to 59.8 from prior highs, even as the headline stayed in expansion for the 27th straight month. Persistent price pressures, with the index climbing to 74.0—the highest since mid-2022—alongside lengthening supplier deliveries and rising backlogs, underscore sticky input costs and supply constraints that could temper October momentum. These mixed signals, set against resilient employment and broader economic growth near 2%, keep trader-implied odds tightly clustered around the mid-50s, reflecting uncertainty over whether cooling demand or inflation dynamics will dominate the next reading.