Traders assign a 99.1% probability that Jeffrey Epstein will not be confirmed alive before 2027 because official records establish his death by suicide in a Manhattan federal jail on August 10, 2019, with the determination upheld by the New York City medical examiner, Department of Justice inspector general review, and FBI examination of cell footage. Subsequent releases of investigative files through 2026, including court documents and congressional probes, have produced no verified evidence of survival, while conspiracy claims and occasional unconfirmed sightings have been consistently rejected by fact-checks and authorities. Ongoing scrutiny, such as a forensic pathologist’s planned November 2026 presentation questioning autopsy details at the request of Epstein’s brother, focuses on the manner of death rather than any indication he remains alive. A shift would require extraordinary, independently verified proof such as biometric confirmation or an authenticated public appearance, events without precedent in the seven years since the documented death.