President Donald Trump has repeatedly referenced the Insurrection Act in connection with immigration enforcement, protests against ICE operations, urban crime, and potential election-related disorder, but has not formally invoked it since taking office in January 2025. His October 2026 Time interview comments—that he does not rule the statute in or out ahead of the November midterms and that many believe it should be used—directly influenced trader positioning on related Polymarket contracts. Polling indicates possible Republican losses in Congress, raising speculation about post-election scenarios, while earlier deployments relied on separate authorities such as 10 U.S.C. § 12406. With no proclamation or executive order issued to date and reform legislation stalled, market prices reflect the low but non-zero probability of invocation before year-end absent major civil unrest or court rulings.