Long-serving Republican incumbent Rep. Mike Simpson's announcement to seek a 15th term in Idaho's 2nd Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with an R+18 partisan voting index, anchors trader consensus at 91.5% for a GOP general election win on November 3, 2026. Recent Republican primary challengers Brian Keene and Perry Shumway emerged in March, but Simpson's strong fundraising—over $933,000 raised—and tenure since 1999 position him as the likely nominee in the May 19 primary, as highlighted in an April 21 Ada County GOP forum. No prominent Democratic candidate has filed, underscoring the district's historical low Democratic turnout and incumbency advantages. Realistic challenges include a primary upset yielding a weaker GOP nominee, late Democratic recruitment, or a national midterm wave shifting battleground dynamics.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วID-02 House Election Winner
ID-02 House Election Winner
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
92%
Democratic Party
9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$1,636 ปริมาณ
92%
Democratic Party
$1,770 ปริมาณ
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Long-serving Republican incumbent Rep. Mike Simpson's announcement to seek a 15th term in Idaho's 2nd Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with an R+18 partisan voting index, anchors trader consensus at 91.5% for a GOP general election win on November 3, 2026. Recent Republican primary challengers Brian Keene and Perry Shumway emerged in March, but Simpson's strong fundraising—over $933,000 raised—and tenure since 1999 position him as the likely nominee in the May 19 primary, as highlighted in an April 21 Ada County GOP forum. No prominent Democratic candidate has filed, underscoring the district's historical low Democratic turnout and incumbency advantages. Realistic challenges include a primary upset yielding a weaker GOP nominee, late Democratic recruitment, or a national midterm wave shifting battleground dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,407วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Long-serving Republican incumbent Rep. Mike Simpson's announcement to seek a 15th term in Idaho's 2nd Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with an R+18 partisan voting index, anchors trader consensus at 91.5% for a GOP general election win on November 3, 2026. Recent Republican primary challengers Brian Keene and Perry Shumway emerged in March, but Simpson's strong fundraising—over $933,000 raised—and tenure since 1999 position him as the likely nominee in the May 19 primary, as highlighted in an April 21 Ada County GOP forum. No prominent Democratic candidate has filed, underscoring the district's historical low Democratic turnout and incumbency advantages. Realistic challenges include a primary upset yielding a weaker GOP nominee, late Democratic recruitment, or a national midterm wave shifting battleground dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,407วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Long-serving Republican incumbent Rep. Mike Simpson's announcement to seek a 15th term in Idaho's 2nd Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with an R+18 partisan voting index, anchors trader consensus at 91.5% for a GOP general election win on November 3, 2026. Recent Republican primary challengers Brian Keene and Perry Shumway emerged in March, but Simpson's strong fundraising—over $933,000 raised—and tenure since 1999 position him as the likely nominee in the May 19 primary, as highlighted in an April 21 Ada County GOP forum. No prominent Democratic candidate has filed, underscoring the district's historical low Democratic turnout and incumbency advantages. Realistic challenges include a primary upset yielding a weaker GOP nominee, late Democratic recruitment, or a national midterm wave shifting battleground dynamics.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย